Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 256.89

-1.2%

Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (57929)	12/20/2001 2:58:40 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I am already sending more funds in for the rise I expect starting the first trading session in January Why do you expect a rise to begin at that time? Check the historical prices on AMAT and most other large cap semiconductor related stocks. You will see what I see in regards to January being a typically strong month: insider.thomsonfn.com What do you expect the price of AMAT to be? I don't know Sam but I expect it will be higher at the end of that first trading session in January. Check this chart to see why I expect this based on the pre year end sell off pointed out by Gottfried (Originally by Big Bucks): stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20001201,20010201][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lf!Lc20] Message 16755458 Despite the worst year in the history of semiconductors these stocks have refused to get totally oversold on a long term basis. Does the market know something or is it merely overvalued? We very nearly broke the grips of a Bear Market this month. Next month I think we will finally begin a new Bull Market. There is little evidence of a recovery among the semiconductors but there is some in certain industries. Consider the Book-to-Bill for some of the foundry companies (CHRT TSM UMC). It is growing rapidly. Also look at the DVD industry (ESST) and also the continued hot sales of the Xbox will help companies like NVDA. Despite the worst year in the history of semiconductors these stocks have refused to get totally oversold on a long term basis. Does the market know something or is it merely overvalued? I believe the battle between those who believe we are overvalued and those who think we must buy here based on an impending recovery is currently biased towards overvalued. Tax loss selling could lead to lower prices when coupled with additional disappointing results and layoffs. when these babies sell off a bit more I intend to add some carefully picked long positions Could we be a bit more specific please? Not yet because I am not going to limit myself to any particular stock or stocks. BTW, On Dec 6, you said that you would happily be back in AMAT at 40. Message 16755436 Are you? No I am not long or short AMAT. I will not fight the trend which is down on both AMAT and SOX. I have made potential turning points on both clear but in the event of more bad news those lower Bollinger Bands could be meaningless. Once the trend seems to be at a turning point I will be entering selected semiconductor stocks. RtS

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