OT: Here is a useful chart for determining long term oversold status. This is monthly on ATML. You can substitute any symbol. If your stock is close to that lower Bollinger Band then it's pretty darned oversold. That means it could turn around soon thereafter.
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhcaniay[d19950101,20010901][pc20!d20,2][vc60][iUe12,26,9!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lo14]
Note that AMAT's monthly chart lower Bollinger Band is actually all the way down at 21.76:
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhcaniay[d19950101,20010901][pc20!d20,2][vc60][iUe12,26,9!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lo14]
You can also use historical data provided by Yahoo:
chart.yahoo.com
Finally on a valuation basis a number of areas can be looked at using the services of a site like WSRN.com:
wsrn.com
My best guesstimate would be that a fair value of 3 might seem reasonable to a value only investor on ATML. Why? Simply because the stock sold as low at 1 1/2 in 1998 when the company was losing less money but had a book value of roughly 1/2 that of today.
Of course the market prices all securities. My reasoning is based on today's falling market. In other words I can argue the other side of the equation and be just as right, or wrong, depending on my timing. I was actually long on ATML a couple weeks ago. I managed to sell on the downgrade scoring a small profit before the whole SOX started selling off.
RtS |
