Your concerns are understandable but I think war will not happen anytime soon between India & Pakistan.
Musharaff cannot turn pro-India during a period of tension over J&K. At best, he can try and ward off attacks outside of the J&K region by bringing the terrorist groups to heel. More than that risks alienating himself from too many... in the near term.
India's strong words parallelled Sharon's demand on Palestinians: deliver some heads or face an end. It was shrewd, politically, because it mimicked what the US, GB and Israel were saying, and sending out troops gives the appearance of pending trouble.
Clearly, Musharraf was also getting a private earful from the US, which has invested heavily in him. And he surely is wise enough to avoid a war with India.
I think your assessment is correct: extremists did not get their chance to kill US soldiers, so they turn to an opponent they think they can beat, hoping to instigate a full war, desperate to prove their ability to beat somebody.. it's a manhood thing among undereducated louts everywhere.
And I think the game is transparent to Musharraf, India's leadership, and US leadership. Yet India had to look tough, to remain legitimate to its own people.
If the government powers have their act together, they'll trade tough words for public consumption and privately, they'll concoct a strategy to squeeze the extremists from all sides as both governments are threatened by the existence of these groups.
The extremists still can't get past Elementary Power 101 class. They are willing pawns, trying to best a single enemy, while creating 10 new stronger enemies quietly conspiring their effective elimination.
Any war between the two nations are likely to be skirmishes and mock battles, for the sake of the extremist audience, who will be less likely to see what's sneaking up on them from different angles.
At least, that's my opinion, after watching these government leaders for awhile.
I hope both countries are spared much pain.
-Kevin |
