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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (45514)	12/21/2001 2:48:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 65232

possible seeds of disaster, yes but if so, then will be felt in late 2002 and very much in 2003 all this current stimulus guarantees a temporary recovery after 8-14 months of recovery, then critical time reminds me of SMU Econ Professor Ravi Batra his main premise behind US economic decline is chronic overproduction and excess debt eventually the inventory stacks up high and deflation hits a major cycle as less money to chase it we could see it in 2003-05 just like Japan now in fact, I think the initial effect of Japan's climax will be lower supply costs, just like in 1997 then in next stage, the overcapacity catches up to us excess is seen now in computerdom, telecom it will be interesting to see if it hits entire economy for the record, I have thought Greenspan to be a hack ever since 1998 when he brokered the LTCM bailout from that point onward, pure ragtag faulty monetary policy he has been fighting inflation for 7 yrs since 1994 all the while, deflation has gathered forceful momentum and his forecasts have a 30% correct record, if that pathetic for central banker in leading nation / jim

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