Well, I don't know if there is a real "upturn" in PC sales, but I do think that WDC will do OK over the 6-12 months, if they execute well, something they haven't always done in the past. They should be able to get a fair amount Fujitsu's desktop share, and wrest some share away from MXO/HDD. It is in Seagate's interest that stability reign in DDland, and I am guessing, as I said in an earlier post, that they will do everything they can to get that stability. The only wild card that I can see is Samsung; I don't know what their intentions are, they are the only ones who might gain from a war on the desktop. But they may not be big enough to cause any damage yet, and they may not even want to, they have enough to do with the DRAM mess, flash chips and their other enterprises. Do they want to get into another commodity war?
I still think that some of the drive stocks will be decent investments over the next year or so. At least doubling from these levels, and perhaps even tripling or (dare I even whisper it?!) quadrupling like other good redblooded American tech stocks. After that, who knows? But they are certainly washed up and sold down enough at this point. The interest, as you can see from this board, is deafening.
Best wishes,
Sam |
