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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Kayaker who wrote (15497)12/21/2001 4:46:29 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Kayaker - I prefer the eyeball method and it did better.
CSCO INTC AMAT PMCS bang on.
It took a hell of a rally to get PMCS there.
MSFT over but it is almost always over by 2-3 points. Do not know why.

As for JNPR.
I see tossup between 22.5 and 20 so lets give JNPR the benefit of the doubt.

Also note that I called for an up day as we overshot pain by a tad. As for being "under" on those stocks, I believe if you look you will see far more calls got toasted than PUTs closed in the money (even if pain was technically higher).

QCOM seemed for whatever reason to be headed to 50 on the noze.
Low an behold QCOM closes right at 50.
I contend that 50 is indeed max pain regardless of what IQAUTO (or my eyeball method said).

50 on the nose is just too perfect a number to hit exactly, for 50 to not have been pain.

In fact if one considers options from 50-70
74979 CALL options expired worthless
00000 CALL options expired in the money
07781 PUT options expired worthless
19481 PUT options closed in the money

Furthermore the difference between 55 and 50 for max pain on QCOM was TRIVIAL!
at the IQUATO (and my eyeball method point of 55)
a mere 2506 additional PUT contracts closed in the money on reaching 50 vs 55. You simply can not say PAIN did not work.

I should have commented on this slight difference when I was doing my predictions. Obviously I rushed on this one and never re-checked. At this difference pain at 50 or 55 was a complete tossup.
an additional 2506 puts in the money out of 82760 worthless calls/puts is trivial.

Max pain was totally on the money this month. A fine achievemnet for the crooks.

M
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