OK, Folks,
There was mildly positive reaction to my thought of starting an actual short portfolio here. As usual, the portfolio will also incorporate a WatchList and will start with 100K. I'll figure that I can "invest" up to that amount and not worry about margin. The idea being simply to track returns from picks. Your margin is your business.
I've made some actual calls here, most of which worked (the glaring exception being the poorly researched short of Connetics; lesson learned). Now I'm going to stick my neck out again in a more accountable way, but with fresh stuff. Though calls already made might be revisited.
Going to start the WatchList with CEPH, which is looking frothy at first blush.
Message 16824656
I'm also concerned about LGND. Trading near multi-year highs. Are their products really gaining much traction? Off label use over-hyped, since reimbursement is unlikely? Throwing good money after bad on ONTAK, which is being tested in severe psoriasis? There, it seems the toxicities at the lower dose still aren't worth the risk in this indication. OTOH, I don't know that market well, and perhaps competition in the severe psoriasis market isn't doing much better. Certainly there are other drugs being tested for the more moderate forms that look a lot better, such as MEDI 507 (tested on "moderate to severe" patients). So I'll put LGND in there, too.
As always, opinions are welcome.
Cheers, Tuck |
