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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Vector1 who wrote (9071)12/22/2001 5:52:36 PM
From: hm  Read Replies (1) of 9719
 
V1

>Assume conservatively $2 billion of sales in 02<

That assumes a 2/3rds conversion rate from Claritin > Clarinex starting at the begining of 2002. If SGP achieve that rate by end 2003, it will be impressive. SGP will have to get Clarinex on all formularies & get docs who have been writing Claritin for many years to write Clarinex instead. Even if 'ex is a better product, it's not a gimme to convert scripts in short order. Add in that managed care has incentive to push for steep discounts with generic Claritin just around the corner, and, IMHO, this won't be a quick conversion. BTW, is 'ex going to be list priced at a premium or at parity to Claritin?

This isn't to say that the 'ex approval isn't good news for SEPR. It is. But, IMO, it's not going to add $100+ million to SEPR's revenues in 2002 or 03.

cheers
hm
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