<I also wonder how many politicians, economist, media commentators even discussed the possibility with enough lead time, much less predicted what took place in Japan or 1929; actually I do not wonder, I am fairly certain that few did.>
Jay, at the risk of idle boastfulness, I told Yukari, a student who stayed with us for 5 weeks in 1989, that Japan was in for a very big fall [the Nikkei I especially meant and of course that would flow into the economy as big crashes do]. When the Imperial Palace was worth more than New Zealand and Tokyo was worth more than the USA and similar silly valuations, it was apparent that mania was marauding.
In 1999, I ranted month after month after month about how the Nasdaq and Dow were going to get their comeuppance and soon [like right now]. It was a standing joke.
In 1986 I was ranting to my BP colleagues that NZ companies were inflating on borrowings and would make a big puff-ball which would go poof. It did, in 1987 and the L is still the shape of the curve, over 14 years later.
For years I was ranting that Globalstar would fail with their high-priced strategy and issued sell warnings. I stayed in, expecting to go through the bottom and expecting them to figure out the rather simple idea that if they charge too much money, they would not sell many minutes at all. They would try their silly strategy for a few months, realize they were wrong, then slash prices and sell billions of minutes. Today, they are continuing with their failed strategy. It's amazing and very much a reminder to me that predicting the future is extremely difficult, especially when people are involved [as they seem to be in the pixilated world of pixels and investments].
As you rightly point out, humans can keep an irrational exuberance going for years after it should be a popped bubble. They can persevere with failing policies when reality is smashing them to pieces. That is cognitive dissonance writ large. Their minds reverbrate in confusion as their internal models of reality clash with the very harsh external objective reality which in fact defines existence. Some, such as the Taleban and John Walker or whatever name he currently chooses, persevere with their madness until reality recycles their carbon back into the ecological evolutionary system to try again with a different DNA structure. The perversity of luck and people is that Mike Spann died and John Walker lived.
So far, for me, so good! I have even spread my DNA further in case I should get run over by the proverbial bus which statistically gets even the most cautious of DNA on a random basis.
I almost think I could be forgiven some hubris, except that for a decade and more, I have been well aware that the instant one's mind shifts towards, "Hmmm, maybe I really am supernatural", that brain glitch causes a gap in thinking and essential paranoia, which likely results in instant DNA recycling. Which is not my plan.
I just wanted to point out that prediction of and creation of objective reality is essentially what our brain DNA is for and we deny that self at our peril. Many people say 'you can't time the market' or, 'it's a random walk' or 'it's all too complex too figure out'. Those ideas of nihilism are all essentially true, but only to a large extent. There is that little glimmer of cognition we can bring to bear to improve our prospects. Those who succeed and fulfill their DNA destiny go on to create the objective realities of the future.
The Aztecs are in thrall to objective reality and cower before it with their gold totems which people have always valued. Their gold cannot create anything new. It merely retains some value, up or down depending on the level of fear or hubris surging in the public.
They can own gold for 100 years and they will maintain their little niche of value in the human pool. But there is no return on investment. They won't create anything new. They aren't funding the development of the future. It is essentially assuming a culture of static tradition. It is the talisman of the Taleban type culture which assumes a fixed world. Which is essentially a world of fear, cringing before the obvious and unavoidable terrors of the universe which challenge us as far as the eye can see and mind can stretch.
The brave set out on the sea of adventure, risking all [or a good part that they don't leave at home, perhaps even in the form of a little stash of gold]. Those adventurers literally create the future for everyone. The successful adventurers make great fortunes.
Man must move to be alive. Sitting still, on a stash of gold like an Aztec priest, is like being rooted to the past. Trees stay rooted in the past. Humans surge through and create the future. Yes, it's icky and dangerous at times and even always. But that's the only way to make the future happen. Those who stay rooted to the spot end up looking like the Taleban or Ted Kaczynski.
There is an ancient Chinese I saw recently saying, "Move a man, he becomes alive; move a tree, it dies". Some people are like trees and they can't cope with movement. But paradigm shift happens. Standing still is a very limited option with as much potential for mayhem as moving quickly into the future; jumping through the portal.
Jump Jay, jump!
Mqurice
PS: I started to make a brief comment but got carried away in what is probably an incoherent rant. It made sense to me at the time.... |
