<Decisions made at each point by each one of us during the cycle of wealth design, creation, expansion, imagination, hallucination, transfer, and destruction matters to one’s starting point in the subsequent phase. Maurice is stepping into the microwave oven with presumably almost 100% allocation to one scheme, >
Jay, each of us is 100% allocated all the time. One wrong step and the bacteria or crematorium are waiting to recycle our misbegotten carbon and DNA back into the ecosphere to have another go at a successful entity.
We should not cringe from a 100% allocation. That is the natural state of the world. There is a probability of 1 for all that happens. The doubt and lower probabilities are a measure of our ignorance and stupidity. Our aim is to convert ourselves to Probability = 1 creatures, which we will achieve when we achieve complete harmony with the universe. Which we are not very close to yet [unless one goes all spiritual and gets into the Nirvana theoretical and hypothetical and superstitious realm of religious conmen].
However, if we are going to go to 100% investment allocation, we had better pay intensely close attention or we will be converted to recycled $$ in a flash. Our whole evolutionary history is hardwired into our DNA and memed into our understanding and cultured into our way of life. The same cannot be said for investment which has a weak link and evolutionary history compared with DNA. 1 inch for investment history compared with a petamile for DNA history. Perhaps that's a good argument for spreading the risk.
Careers are also 100% allocation, with limited movement posssible once one is aged 40 and well-entrenched. But people are not too worried about that 100% allocation. Most people have one wife or husband = 100% allocation. We commonly go with 100% allocation. We can only be in one place at one time and bet our lives every instant on a 100% allocation to our position on the highway and the instantaneous next position.
Just as Tiger Woods does very well with 100% allocation, so too can we, but we had better give as much attention to our 100% investment allocations as he does to golf. A casual, yawning, bet on a good company is dodgy.
Now that I think about it, I think it's time to spread out. In fact, I have and am looking to move more. As you so rightly pointed out, the advantage I now have in QUALCOMM has been eroded as thousands of people now scrutinize every move, value every facet and predict every outcome. What advantage do I now have over them? Very little, though I notice that still, very few people understand what's going on, even among the aficianados, and not to mention what might go on.
However the prosaic, tangible world of Au and land and buildings leaves me cold. It reminds me of Talebanland and the 19th century.
The problem you identified in that quote, 'hallucination', is the big issue. The hallucination that Globalstar or Global Crossing would be the next big thing was a disaster! Avoiding the hallucinatory part is tricky, but we do it in our regular life with attention to enough detail and ensuring a complete understanding. We need to go from the hallucinatory to the Probability = 1 style. A tricky task, but that's the name of the game. Those who approach 1 do extremely well. Those at P = 0.4 are in trouble and are essentially the food supply for those nearer Nirvana. Those P = 0.4 people need to spread their investments a LOT because they cannot beat the P = 0.8 people who need to look out for P = 0.9 neural net, quantum computing, supercomputer algorithm generators.
Okay, that's my ranting done for now,
Merry Xmas to all [except for you Osama - no I still haven't forgiven you].
Mqurice |
