Bush handed three attack plans for Saddam
By David Wastell in Washington
(Filed: 23/12/2001)
A SHORTLIST of three options for attacking Iraq will be presented to President George W. Bush next month.
President Bush: Middle East opinion may support US action against the Iraqi regime
The plans are being prepared by the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency in a fresh sign that Mr Bush is considering strong action against President Saddam Hussein's regime.
With only isolated pockets of al-Qaeda resistance remaining to be tackled in Afghanistan, the time is fast approaching for Mr Bush to make a decision on the next phase of the war on global terrorism.
First will come smaller-scale action against al-Qaeda's cells in other countries. However, Mr Bush will consider plans for a campaign against Saddam soon, to allow military and diplomatic preparations to begin.
He has made clear that he sees the Iraqi dictator as a menace because of his aggressive stance and his reported stocks of chemical and biological weapons. His view is likely to have hardened after a new Iraqi defector's reports last week of secret weapons caches.
"You'll see the pace of administration decisions pick up in January," said an observer familiar with CIA and Pentagon thinking.
Senior Pentagon officials, led by Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy defence secretary, want to adapt the strategy that has just delivered victory in Afghanistan and apply it to Iraq.
A Pentagon study group set up by Mr Wolfowitz is examining a detailed war plan put forward by Ahmad Chalibi, the leader of the opposition Iraqi National Congress (INC).
Under these proposals, Washington would spend several months arming and training the Iraqi opposition - then send in special forces to direct air strikes.
The chiefs of staff, however, are thought to be arguing for a much bigger commitment of US ground troops, capable of taking on Saddam without help from the INC, which they see as far weaker than the Afghan Northern Alliance.
The CIA, meanwhile, is pushing for covert action to destabilise the Saddam regime - perhaps culminating in a coup. CIA officials have begun putting out renewed feelers to Iraqi military defectors who may have influence and contacts within Saddam's forces.
Defence officials, however, point out that previous coup attempts have all failed, or been detected before they began, resulting in the execution of scores of officers.
Colin Powell, the secretary of state, is among a number of Bush officials with reservations about the wisdom of tackling Saddam head-on but who acknowledge the need to do something.
Last month, the State Department flew at least a dozen exiled Iraqi officers to Washington to discuss Iraq's future after Saddam - a sign that Gen Powell may now favour the CIA option.
Both he and the intelligence agency believe that a campaign against Saddam is more likely to succeed if the opposition can be expanded beyond Kurds in the north and Shia Muslims in the south to embrace Iraq's Sunni Muslim majority.
Mr Bush has made clear that his desire to topple Saddam is not driven by the Iraqi regime's involvement - or otherwise - in the September 11 terrorist attacks.
He believes that US success in Afghanistan has made Middle East opinion more receptive to a move against Saddam - provided it was overwhelming and decisive.
Last week, the New York Times quoted an unnamed Arab envoy in Washington as arguing that an attack on Saddam was now "do-able" without destabilising governments in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
He was quoted as saying: "How many people will cry for Saddam if he goes?"
Some officials believe that it may be both possible, and desirable, to combine elements of all three options, putting maximum military pressure on Saddam while speeding his collapse from within. "The more lines of attack, the more effective we will be," said one strategist.
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