I don't -- right now. But for now, I am looking for an approximate valuation on the S&P for "typical" market bottoms. The HIGHEST S&P valuation at a market bottom was in 1960, and that was 16.4
When we approach that valuation, I will examine the current conditions, temper the negativity with rational, historical reality, then, hopefully pull the trigger on LTBH money when I am feeling like the market cannot possibly go up again. I feel like the climb back will be slow and steady, even at that point. Why? Because the S & P historical average is around 9.5%, and we have seen over 20% on average from 1985-2000. The historical averages must be brought back in line over time. Of course, we will have to figure in the decline from April, 2000 to the market bottom (whenever that occurs) and adjust from there going forward.
I just know that there are a lot of LTBH's who are listening to CNBC and putting money to work because "they are missing the train leaving the station". They are going to go through agonizing times because these idiots don't make it clear that they are traders capitalizing (or trying to) on LTBH money making these rallies go far enough for them to sell at various points for a profit.
I remain,
SOROS
p.s. Of course, I keep a prophetic outlook as well, and I may not need this money at all. But that's a different thread. |
