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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: hdl who wrote (140157)	12/23/2001 3:37:40 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) of 436258

if bin ladel is killed within the next three months, i will be fading that rally. at that time, i will be giving serious consideration to my preferred, kick 'em in the groin shorting ways. whether or not the evil one's demise is the seminal event ending this cyclical bull within a secular bear, all depends on it's timing as it relates to the market, economy and psychological gestalt. ultimately, fundamentals are the market's driving force. wiggles can take days, weeks, months and even years. with an S&P p/e of 39, you really have no footing as a buy and hold investor. peter lynch is wrong, the mutual fund complex lies, and only when people like you realize that buying and holding is riddled with risk, are we beginning to make meaningful progress. i have said this before... 1929-1949 bear market 1949-1965 bull market 1965-1982 bear market 1982-2000 bull market 2000-???? bear market you have a p/e of 39 on the S&P. a mean growth line plotted on the DOW dating back to 1920 gives a target of approximately 5000. mean growth does not just go away. there is no new paradigm and regression to the mean ALWAYS occurs in the face of ANY significant technological innovation. at any rate, i'm sure you would agree that a thorough understanding of market history is mandatory no matter which flag (bull/bear) you wave. most of the posters on this thread are well read, hence their affiliation. (~)^(~)

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