Here's my best guess as to the particulars of the current draw:
- Assumption 1: Draw began Wednesday, December 5th.
- Total shares sold by the Amigos since then: 549,900
- Average shares sold per day by the Amigos: 42,300
- Assumption 2: They generally distribute their selling proportionately over the 20 days.
- Extrapolated total number of shares sold over the full 20 days - 20 x 42,300 = 846,000
- Average volumetrically weighted closing price since December 5th: $4.41
- Total value of the coming draw: $4.41 x 846,000 = $3.73 million
- Caveat 1: It is more important for Acqua to sell in proportion to the daily volume rather than equally across the 20 days. This involves some guessing on their part as to how the volume will unfold over the 20 days. I assume they are counting on lower volume over the Christmas/New Years period (ie. back half of the draw), so have counted on selling less shares during this period. Therefore I doubt by extrapolation is accurate. I think with daily volume dropping off during this period, it would be better to assume a daily sell volume, by the Amigos, closer to half of their daily sell volume prior to Christmas: 21,000 instead of 42,300. This would knock the total value of the draw down to about $3.0 million.
- Caveat 2: The average price can still change over the next 7 days of the draw. However, the possibility of it changing dramatically (either way) is slim, given that the 20 day average is volumetrically weighted and the volume should not be significant over the Christmas holidays.
Closing Guess: $3.0 million announced on Monday, January 7th. |
