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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: hdl who wrote (140234)12/24/2001 10:52:15 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
the jobless claims figures "dropping" are still in the process of falling back to the level prior to the terrorist attacks. that still indicates a weakening job market and economy. you may get a flattening of the headline unemployment rate for the next several months purely due to statistical abberations in the government's data. One, the seasonally adjusted rate is about .4 above the unadjusted rate. Two, there is usually an increase of .3 to .7 in the unadjusted rate in January. And three, the seasonal adjustment will probably overcompensate for two. You could see the headline numbers move more strongly higher in the spring and summer. one of the main differences with 91-92 is that you don't have 18 more months of fed interest rate cuts from this point forward.
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