Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: yard_man who wrote (140334)	12/24/2001 4:53:24 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) of 436258

tip, you may be right and we each have to analyze the situation and adjust our risk profile accordingly. Two major items that are known very well have made the risks to the banking system apparent (just the tip that we can see to be sure) ENE and Argentina LTCM, Asia and Russia were equally significant imo. Large injections such as you mention should now be a cause for concern, not necessarily indicative of market direction while you may be correct this time, in the past they have always correlated with market direction...up When the credit collapse comes, sun, more likely than not it will be in the midst of rampant pumping like we haven't seen before when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras. again, history has shown us that the vast majority of significant downdrafts have occured when the FED was either powerless(mar 2000), or stupid (i.e. the restrictive policies in the post 1929 era). this one is bad, and the cash injection is epic. to me the %'s lie with the long side for now. but yes, the cycle following this liquidity infusion will be heinous for sure. just another opportunity to learn...and another reason to cut the cord when the trade goes against you!

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