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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (12106)12/25/2001 7:22:19 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Just been idly thinking about Elliot Waves, oh and Kondratieff Waves too. This is what I come up with. Assuming the late 1960s and the 1970s are the last major corrective phase and then we have a bull-market since then.

Wave 1 peaks out in October 1987 and the correction lasts into the 1990 recession which is wave 2. That was the accumulation cycle when today's billionaires got their start. Then starts wave 3 which runs till March 2001. It subdivides as it should into 5 subwaves. Wave i up to 1994 and wave ii the 1994 correction. Wave iii up to July 1997 and the Asian crisis. This is when the "equity culture" really gets underway. Wave iv lasts till October 1998. Then wave v when many bears capitulate and things go totally crazy and everyone gets into buying dot.com stocks. Now we are in the wave 4 correction. I suspect we are in the later stages of the B wave bear market rally and that the final bottom will be much lower. But I could be wrong and we might already be in Wave 5. In this wave all remaining bears will capitulate. Then from 2010 +/- on will be a prolonged bear market.

Well this is one way of thinking about where we might be in the larger scheme of things.

In my (not very popular) view the 1979-82 recession period marked the end of the Kondratieff Cycle stating in the 1930s. I believe that the Kondratieff Cycle is accelerating over time. The current one may only last 30-40 years.

David
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