"... synthetic factors the [silver]price structure is..."
Russ, Claude, Bob Johnson in abatemint,
and all those many others who post on this thread,
telling it as they understand it, with the hope
that what they deliver is solid goods,
good to use by others.
Opposed to this are many shapes and forms
that lurk in public like those dirty men wearing raincoats,
while the sun shines, waiting for innocents not yet
touched by the realization that a person's approach
with a mission to speak, can be done not with words,
but a flashing picture of eXXXposure.
So now using the above as a lead-in, is the follow post,
which i think is a reply to the Silver lease rates,
is among those happenings where the wind is calm under
a bright cloudless day, the front unhooked flaps open wide?
From: ahhaha
Tuesday, Dec 25, 2001
It is telling about the marginal supply of silver.
Silver is not instantaneously available in synthetic quantity.
Market demand for synthetic silver,
silver associated with contracts and market settlement,
is fairly strong, but fundamental demand isn't.
Total demand and supply of silver are in equilibrium
and both are flat as a function of time.
The net of this configuration is that
once the marginal effects caused by synthetic conditions
are neutralized, price will revert back to the fundamental
equilibrium level.
The long term silver chart suggests this level is instantaneously
$4.40, and over the next year, $5.00.
Whenever a market is dominated by marginal forces
price volatility is high. Currently the market has
a head of steam. The above mentioned forces
and associated measures like lease rates
should bring the price at least up to $4.70
and then above the median long term equilibrium
of $5.00 where it should then correct back down
to something like $4.40 before heading up
and swinging wildly for some time around $5.00,
again all due to marginal forces and their attendant volatility.
The dominance by marginal forces and lack of clarity
is expressed in the ambiguity seen in lease rates.
This is a trader's game sine qua non.
Maybe the current move is half done.
Do you get aboard now?
Not in my book on a trading basis.
I don't need to catch all the girls.
Maybe the current move is mostly done.
It's totally treacherous because fundamental long term
total demand just isn't there. Because the price is driven
by synthetic factors the price structure is a house of cards.
In comparison the gold market situation is inverse to that
of silver. Gold is in a long term boring bull market.
It's hard to say what the long term trend is in silver.
The best guess is flat with wild swings generated by wild speculation. |
