Hi Maurice, I guess it is just us folks who have Boxing Day holiday that are moping around the net today:0)
We in Hong Kong retained all of our holidays, be they Christian, Buddhist, Chinese traditional or Banker’s days. The Queen's birthday is replaced by an additional Buddahist holiday.
<<end of 2001 is nigh and there has NOT been a financial meltdown. From 1,300, the S&P500 is down to 1,100, which is only 16%>>, less risk-less opportunity cost of 8% makes 24%, which, at least in my book, qualifies as an absolute and horrendous outcome requiring 24-36 months of risk-less returns to breakeven on.
<<normal annual oscillation over the last umpteen decades>> Normal for who?
<<Even the dreaded techstock Nasdaq is only down 500 from 2,500 = 20%>> 28%, inclusive of above mentioned risk-less return, and requiring 18 months of frothy, foaming at the mouth mania to breakeven, inclusive of above mentioned risk-less return.
<<GDP and other economic indicators are all fine>> This is what folks and MeDroogies said 12 months ago, and it was not true then, is not true now, and cannot be true for the coming 12 months. Everything is pointing down, except the market, until it disappoints again, minus another 24%. How many 24% do you have? I will bet less than Uncle Greenspell has 0.5%.
<<A USA recession has finally been detected, which looks more like a hedgehog for scariness compared with the tyrannosaur we've been waiting for>> Give it time. The Japanese hedgehog scared no one and in fact, judging by the bravado, scares no one, not even the Japanese.
<<effortless wealth is continuing to flood the planet. Much of it in the way that oxygen ... is flooding the planet>>
Not wealth, Maurice, paper.
By the way, oxygen, in enough quantity at sufficient pressure, kills. Same with a lot of paper at proper velocity. Do not believe me? Just wait the required time.
<<Gold is least subject to sudden swoons in value>> Excellent, you may have just uttered the magic sentence for 2002, thank you.
<<Cash, as in Argentina's case, can be suddenly converted to an empty promise>> Agree.
<<Shares reflect productive enterprise. How much one should earn is the hard part>> Reflect only, and with less production, so follows lowered value reflectivity.
<<Gold earns no return>>
You think not? Well, let me now start a model portfolio here for the thread, starting with this post, with USD 200,000 paper money credit, and see what I can do with same over the course of 365 days.
Day #1: Portfolio composition = 100% USD cash
Chugs, Jay |
