Wednesday, September 8, 1999 12:20 PM ET
To: ahhaha
From:
The beauty of SI is that one can go back and review the posting history of another SI member. Unfortunately, I can only review your history up to August 13th. Were I able to go further back, I would be willing to bet your posts would look eerily similar, forecasting gloom and doom, bear markets, destruction of capital, and the like.
Clearly, you are a smart guy. You use words like "leptokurtosis." You are able to cite obscure and esoteric economic theory. Your posts are well-written and well-reasoned. They are also, in an intellectually snobbish way, the same thing that all the bears have been saying for the last four years.
Eventually, you may be right. We may be in a bubble. We may correct, move into a bear market, or even collapse, a la the Nikkei in 1990. We will only know in hindsight where the true inflection point laid.
Your posts are interesting in that they contain information 99% of the people reading out there don't know, coupled with insults to people's intelligence. This must be lots of fun for you -- create doubt in their own judgement, then reinforce this perception with your observation of their schooling, lack of knowledge, etc. Of course, no one can actually debate you on most of this crap because no one knows what is.
In the end, it is pointless to debate you. Nice call on GBLX, however -- not that the fall had anything to do with the reasons you cited.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 12:34 PM ET
To:
From: ahhaha
Whining like a grade A fool isn't going to do you any good. You should get out of investment because you can't see what is developing. It's called a bear market. If the public could see it, do you really think it could develop? How else do you think the bear develops? This proves you've never been through a bear market. Since one hasn't occurred since '73, it's understandable.
The only purpose for doing this activity is to make money. I post to hear what I think. This objectifies my judgement. I could care less what others post. It is universally useless. If you had followed my advice on the long side during the bull market, you would have easily outperformed everyone. I say easy because I gave very specific fundamental reasons why something would move. In the bear things don't move on fundamentals. They move irrationally.
You never asked me why GBLX was headed for the tank. That makes you a loser, because you don't investigate thoroughly. You don't go where it is uncomfortable. You have to find out the negatives too. Often, it is the negatives which make the coherent bull argument.
You say the general reasons I gave in that particular post weren't the problem. I can't believe you say that. That is so air head it boggles the mind. They are the problem, but I don't think you understand what I posted. You had better. The truth of it is so in your face that the company has to run a Ponzi Scheme to continue its pseudo solvency. When they no longer have something to buy, the company is likely to go bankrupt. I had hoped that they would stop this fool dilution, and start trying to make all they have under their belt work profitably. No, they're bagged. They can't stop running from costs. They're following in WRDP's tracks.
If you want to find out who is here, PM Coluccio. But who says something is entirely irrelevant? What is said is critical. That won't be of much value if you can't read though.
Before the bear is over, you will be sounding a lot nastier than I do.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 1:50 PM ET
To: ahhaha
From:
No whining here, the bull has been very good to me.
You wrote: If you want to find out who is here, PM Coluccio. But who says something is entirely irrelevant? What is said is critical. That won't be of much value if you can't read though.
Since I can't read, could you tell me what that means? <g> Or does it just mean you can't write?
You also wrote "The only reason for doing this activity is to make money." I couldn't agree more. And when I feel like I am no longer able to successfully predict the superior financial performance of a company I will cease investing.
The fact that you may have been an investor during the last true bear market is entirely irrelevant to the content of your writing. It does not give you any unique insight into today's market that eitehr don't have or can't find. To insult me for not having experienced a bear market is a meaningless attack.
You also wrote "If you had followed my advice on the long side during the bull market, you would have easily outperformed everyone." That's a pretty bold statement, and of course completely unsubstantiated. Again, meaningless.
I am more than happy to entertain challenges to my logic and investment decisions. In fact, I would love to hear a detailed explanation of why GBLX will fold like a house of cards. If such an explanation comes with a load of condescending and patronizing crap, don't bother.
The reasons that you gave, and I grant you I have not been able to read the posts prior to August 13th, is that costs to GBLX stay constant or go up, while the value of the commodity they sell moves inexorably down. You may try to make it seem more complicated than that, but that is in essence what you said. (You wrote: The fundamental reality is declining expectations for rising profits at rising economies of scale versus rising costs to implement scale under effective upward adjustments in previously estimated costs. Competition doesn't help and cable consternation everywhere is causing the red flags of doubt to fly.)
But you're wrong. Every sentence is flawed or ignorant in some way.
You think understanding economics is a substitute for understanding companies. You're wrong.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 2:31 PM ET
To:
From: ahhaha
Oh, I'm wrong, huh. You haven't understood a word. That usually is fatal in this business and you are a hack amateur. Don't confuse brains or success with a bull market. Amateurs can't do that. If you can't figure out what PM Coluccio means, you should hang it up before you're cleaned, boy.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 2:37 PM ET
To: ahhaha
From:
PM is Private Mail
Coluccio is Frank Coluccio.
PM him with what? Asking him if you're right?
You're wrong. On interest rates. On GBLX. On a bear market.
You talk much and say little.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 3:08 PM ET
To:
From: ahhaha
Interest rates aren't rising? GBLX isn't falling? Check the Utilities and trannies fool and tell me they aren't locked in a nasty down trend. Check the breadth. You have hell to pay and you have no business managing anyone's money. You're a 100% fraud and you and the fools who follow you are going to be cleaned. Your attitude is representative of bull market stupidity, but you are such a fool that you can't even admit it.
Wednesday, September 8, 1999 3:51 PM ET
To: ahhaha
From:
Sure rates are rising. GBLX is certainly down from where I bought it. (Though today is a nice day.) Those darn Utes and trannies aren't cooperating worth a damn.
Remarkably though, my clients and I still are up 70% for the year. And gee, no interent stocks, either. Probably just dumb luck. Sure wish I was dumb enough to have seen a bear market coming so I could have sold a long time ago. Oh well, I'm destined to be an amateur, a hack, a fraud, etc.....
Check the charts genius. There have been many many times in the last four years where the performance of all three of the indexes has widely diverged.
Breadth? Yeah, same story as last fall. Nasty correction, but no bear market.
Interest rates? Ohmygosh, they're as high as they have been in almost 10 months! Inflation? Go ask Eckhard Pfeiffer about inflation. Or a pig farmer. Or GM.
You're chasing ghosts my man. And so is the Fed. A year from now we're gonna be talking about a rate CUT to stimulate growth. Reminds of all the talk about global warming. Seems like only yesterday the crisis of the century was global COOLING.
Your glib responses are tired. Give it a rest Quixote. |
