Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 247.99

-4.2%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: fyodor_ who wrote (66292)	12/26/2001 11:21:33 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (5) of 275872

Regarding yields… To try and make any reasonable estimate of yields based on publicly available data is an exercise in futility I believe the estimates of yields posted have included the assumptions. Wafer start capacity is published on AMD's website. The ~even mix of Athlons/Durons was discussed in CCs. The total processors shipped was discussed and AMD made the statement that they were supply constrained. Droids have adjusted the wafer starts downwards to show good yields. I've shown poor yields, even allowing for less than 100% capacity at F30. One thing you don't have here is a model used for calculating expected yields based on die size and defect density. I have such a model but it's not public. I see AMD's F30 output at about 1/2 -2/3s expected, even at reduced wafer starts. Intel has many times the capacity of AMD, yet produces only ~ 3 times the units. So by your logic, if AMD yields are poor, Intel yields are much worse. You are way way off here. I figure Intel makes almost 10x the chips AMD does. I'll do something you don't do, I'll provide numbers. Q4 estimates: (not based on any inside information) Processors 25 million Chipsets 40 million StrongArm 3 million Other logic 3 million Total 71 million Not counting any Flash Additionally P4 is much larger than Athlon and should yield much lower, even with the same defect density. It should yield well below half what Athlon does. .13u will come much closer to parity. AMD of course will have the potential to yield much better when they move to full .13u also but that remains to be seen. Neither is likely the case, however. Industry observers (examples include the EETimes, EBN and the like) all seem to indicate that both AMD and Intel have yields far above the industry norm on any given process. Let them run the numbers and show how AMD can get only about 3.85 million units from even only 3500 WSPW with good yields. It doesn't work. It doesn't come close. P.S. turn off fixed font if replying EP

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next