If I had to venture a guess, it looks to me like the indexes are now doing their c wave of the 5th up. I still hold that each up leg off the lows is a 3 wave a-b-c. I have seen a lot of counts putting 5 waves in each leg off the lows, but I just don't see how they work. One of the problems is that IMO, corrective counts within a 5 wave series (wave 2 and 4) should be of a similar degree. In other words if wave 2 is about 4 days than wave 4 should also be about 4 days. I see a lot of people putting counts in with a big disparity in this. There are also a few places where you just cannot place a 5 wave move on the minor counts and there is overlap in a few of the corrective patterns as well. If you cannot do it in all of them, then I think another count needs to be considered. Thus, 3 wave divisions, and they fit.
For this c of 5, it looks like this morning's up move is the a of c of 5 and now we're going to work on the b of c of 5. The c of c of 5 should finish by Friday and actually fits nicely with the next turn date being around the 28th, as well as a major negative Astro occuring on that date.
Dec 6th (near the carolyn Dec 10th turn date) looks like the high in most indexes, though I think the DOW can still put in one more new high here. The SPX is going to have to really move it to tag the last high near 1173 and the Nasdaq is just lagging everything now. This date also looks like it was the top of the B wave of the wave 4 correction which is an expanding triangle so everything from here should be either down or moving up in a divergence which would fit for a 5th wave.
Now let's look at something interesting and use the SPX as an example....
With 3 wave subdivisions, I place the first upleg in the SPX from 945 to 1100 for 155 points. If we take 0.618 times the length of the first wave, we get about 96.4 points. The next upleg was from 1053 to about 1150...97 points. So now if we take 0.618 of the 3rd leg (97 points) we get about 60 points and if 1115 was the bottom of the last correction, then we get an upside target of about 1175 which put us at a doube top for this index.
Also, note that in each of the last 2 up legs up, the C wave was the shortest and roughly between 1/3 and 2/3 of the A wave. If the A of this last leg is from 1115 to 1153 for 38 points, than we can expect the C wave to be less than that.
just some thoughts. |
