Dave, here is a slightly more optimistic scenario, based on the fact that I have yet to see a Virtual Advisor ad and anticipate seeing them next year.
2,000,000 subscribers to Onstar...assume NO growth
2% decide to use VA 10 minutes/day traffic,news,stocks
3% decide to use VA 5 minutes/day traffic,sports
5% decide to use VA 2 minutes/day traffic only
90% decide never to use VA at all
Now lets assume a 20 day work month and no other useage
40,000 users X 10 mins X 20 days = 8,000,000 minutes
60,000 users X 5 mins X 20 days = 6,000,000 minutes
100,000 users X 2 mins X 20 days = 4,000,000 minutes
That is 14,000,000 minutes in excess of the 4,000,000 minutes for which GMGC gets $95,000 each month.
14,000,000 mins X $.037 (avg of $.056 and $.018)= $518,000
each month. It could add up to over $6,000,000 if GM begins to ramp up early next year. Or even if it takes a few months, if subscriber growth continues beyond the current 2,000,000.
Of course, a higher or lower adoption rate for VA could occur. Does this seem realistic?
Seconds Out. |
