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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 147.31+2.1%Jan 27 4:00 PM EST

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To: GraceZ who wrote (80231)12/26/2001 7:32:37 PM
From: Claude Cormier  Read Replies (1) of 116927
 
Grace,

There is no doubt that digital photo will take a greater portion of the market over the coming years. Everybody agrees on that. The question is how fast this change will take place and what effect it will have on the silver market.

Remember that the use of silver in photography, as a percentage of total fabrication demand has been falling from 28% to 23% in the last 10 years and it will continue to fall year after year as more industrial uses are discovered for silver.

As well, a reduction in silver demand in photography implies a reduction in scrap silver recoveries from photography. We may lose 100 millions ounces of silver on the demand side over the next 5-10 years, but this will imply 50-75 millions ounces will disapear on the supply side.

Also, since current gold and silver prices are not high enough to support primary mine production (which is 40% of the supply from these sources), prices must rise or else, production will fall.

IMO, the odds favor higher silver prices over the long term.
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