Hi David, the floor for News Corp, a family fiefdom, is zero. CDs now pay an insulting interest yield and there will be more paper coming our way, keeping interest rate at the low until it doesn’t, making sure that services will cost more of a fortune in the future even as products will cost less. In contrast, NEM is OK, especially if treated as a petty cash box that may go boom rather than kaboom.
My bet is that gold is range bound for a while longer at USD 260-290, and if so, NEM shares (better had it not gotten involved with Normandy deal heat) is also range bound between USD 15 and 30,
siliconinvestor.com
and that at USD 15, the stock is actually a good deal.
Actually, in reality, I never sell naked calls, only the covered variety. For real, historically, I had been only selling naked puts at what I believed to be the then lower side of the trading range, and when I lose a little bit (meaning less than the premiums collected), I turn right around and sell a short duration covered call at some what higher then the purchase price. When I lose a lot, which cannot have been more than once if at all in the past 36 months given that my NEM holdings account for such a miniscule % (now at about 0.84% :0) of my portfolio, I sit on the shares I wanted to buy anyway.
Message 15847224
“The metal mining stocks account for 1.3% of total NAV, NEM accounting for more than half of sub-total”
And so what is the exercise all about? If someone were to ask me what my return on NEM related activities has been, I want to guess 100% per annum, but I am too lazy to look up all the trades and work out the math, and so I set up a dedicated Model Portfolio on my Microsoft Money that is managed on the basis of more trades, a bit zippier and slightly bolder trades, just to see and have some fun with Maurice, who thinks that one cannot make money with gold, an Aztec totem that is, especially now and more so in the expected future, better than money.
Despite all my rant, blather and bluster, and my belief in gold having a value somewhere north of zero, I am, as I had declared repeatedly, not a gold bug …
Message 14680519
“I am not a raving gold bug, closet or otherwise”
Message 14861804
“On gold, I am not a gold bug, and I do not believe in a return to the gold standard. Gold is not money. However, gold is a store of value. I do not know the value of gold, but I do know by observation that the selling of hoards of gold had saved many families in Asia during the past few years. I think platinum is a better store of value.”
Message 14883919
“I want to emphasize that I am not a gold bug, as I am not a Softbank, or CSCO or MSFT bug.
However, I have been selling puts on NEM and SWC for nearly 2 years now, as each stock nears the low of its then very well defined lower range ($18, $25 respectively). I now have NEM strike price 12.5 puts and SWC stk price 25 puts shorted. For every 3-4 series of puts I sell, I got put the shares once. I sell covered calls on NEM as it reaches for its higher range. My thus accumulated NEM and SWC has a low average price”
Message 15774371
“<<Gold?, Platinum?... Why is it different now than a year ago, two or three years ago? ... Still don't see it ... Maybe someday.>>
Well, I remember what you stated you were holding, and the same question applies. We can discuss this matter … if you promise to not label me as a platinum worm or gold bug, boring or otherwise ...”
Message 15827492
“I will (try to) defend my seemingly absurd pretensions to a gold bug and platinum worm”
… and as proof, other than my platinum and gold coins, which are fun and calming, and some shorted SWC January 20 puts, I have no AAPTY, AMPAY, SWC shares at the moment. I trade SWC options because there is no short-able options on AAPTY and AMPAY.
My calm on precious metal shares, and actually on all asset classes, is that I believe in such a thing as ‘normal profit’ most of the time, as opposed to ‘I got to get in now, else the train will leave the station’. I am never in a big hurry to lose money.
On the 5dotodd percent of NAV allocated to physical gold and platinum coins (between 60/40 to 70/30), I simply think (a) it is a good idea, (b) cheap idea in view of interest rate on deposit, (c) I like it, and (d) it gives me courage. I would guess that the stockpile will be maintained as so, a fixed percentage of NAV, a private Central Bank hoard. The skewing from platinum to gold is a 2001 act, because there is no bullion platinum available for sale in HK now (the banks only buy, but no sale), and the coins available from Kitco have a ridiculous 10% premium over spot. On this hoard, I am the ultimate LTBH nightmare for uncle Greenput.
The above, in a nut shell, for this bug, is the DD based on fundamentals, technicals, psychology, for NEM, and the description of how I am establishing a position.
I emphasize that, yes, I can move very much faster when I want to and have done so in the past.
On NEM shares/options, I am willing to see NEM allocation go to 5% (maybe even 50% for a few short days), and so as I say, I will sell puts until the cows and COTS come home, which could be 2-3 years, and many dollars of premium later.
On this last point, I have bad news for now … my prediction that Business Week’s 2001 Where to Invest Now issue did not mention gold as an asset class, and thus my prediction on one part of the scripted Collapse sequence did not happen, yet
Message 15421566
“Precious Metal Reappears On Business Week Where To Invest Your Money Issue”
Chugs, Jay |
