Next BK after Enron ? candidates list...
Expected or Almost expected -
Lucent
AT&T
Amazon (lots of Debt, no profits)
Kmart
Halliburton (asbestos)
Viacom (CBS) (asbestos)
USAir (see last weeks Barrons')
Air Canada (unless Canadian gov't bails them out ...after seeing the embaraassmentof the Swiss gov't with Swissair, a bailout is is more likely)
Possible -------
Ford (GM price war, later effect of Yen Devaluation)
Gap Stores
ACF Americredit - a sub prime auto lender
One or two of the weaker EMS (contract mfgs., like Solectron, SCI, Flextronics) Flex is in good shape, dopn't know the rest....
JC PEnney (US Retailer) is weak, but I think they did okay in sales...
Also possible ----
<these are sort of banker's discretion cases. The hotel companies will eventually recover to some level of performance, and there may be a reworking of the debt then. Right now, there is no one better to run the assets, they would have far LESS value in a BK, so the bondholders & bankers will let them slide, knowing that eventually (2-3 years ?) most travel will recover...>
Look at leveraged U.S. Chemical companies - sales are down, and Natural gas feed stock prices go back up
Energy game players -
Calpine
Duke
Dynergy
Southern California Edison EIX - after effects of California energy crisis.
Leveraged hotel chains - Starwood is shaky, but banks may decide to have patience.
Will be avoided at all costs, including inflation -
JPM, Citibank
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Re: Enron - thay had over 50 off balance sheet firms - article in Forbes covers this, and I bet there is more.
I don't think are are many more Enron type problems out there, Enron was REALLY Creative and worked very hard at their fraud. |
