Assuming INTC beats current proforma 11 cent earnings estimates by the typical penny. We will have 12 cents proforma this quarter. The actual earnings have been lower then proforma earnings ranging from 0% to 80% over the last few years. I think we could see some charges this quarter, that could have intc reporting an actual loss for the quarter. We shall see. This chart I made assumes actual earnings fall in the historical range of 0% to 80% lower then proforma. That will be 2-12 cents actual earnings for this quarter.
q4-2001 q3-2001 q2-2001 q1-2001 q4-2000 q3-2000 q2-2000 q1-2000 q4-1999 q3-1999 q2-1999 q1-1999
0.12____$0.10 ___$0.12___$0.16___$0.38___$0.41___$0.50___$0.43___$0.34___$0.27___$0.26___$0.29 Proforma Earings (diluted)
.2-.12___$0.02___$0.03___$0.07___$0.32___$0.36___$0.45___$0.39___$0.30___$0.21___$0.25___$0.29 Actual Earnings (diluted)
(0 - 80%)_80%____75%____56%__15.79%__12.20%__10%__9.30%__11.76%__22.22%__3.85%___0% percentage less then performa
What a nasty trend...the gap between proforma and actual earnings is getting just silly! If we see some major charges in the coming quarters I expect it will rise to over 100% (earnings negative and proforma still positive)
If Intel reports actual earnings this quarter in my expected range of 2-12 cents then:
INTC's current actual trailing p/e will be between 134 - 230 when they report this quarter
If it beats estimates by a penny and reports proforma earnings of 12 cents then:
INTC's current trailing proforma p/e will be 64.48 when they report this quarter
At the Q3 2000 peak of $75.81 the actual trailing p/e was 63. The proforma p/e was 45
At the end of 1999 the actual trailing p/e was 39, the profroma p/e was 35.5
Using the above proforma numbers, INTC is currently 43% more expensive then it was at the peak of Q3 2000 and 82% then it was at the end of 1999.
Using actual earnings...it's just plain silly. INTC is 200-350% more expensive then it was at the peak and between 340-590% more expensive then it was at the end of 1999.
I got my info from this source intc.com
Note this trend.
revenue net $6,545 $6,334 $6,677 $8,702 $8,731 $8,300 $7,993 $8,212 $7,328 $6,746 $7,103
Cost of sales $3,553 $3,307 $3,225 $3,230 $3,148 $3,283 $2,989 $3,176 $3,026 $2,740 $2,894
Cost of sales is rising steady as revenue and is declining.
Take a good look at the numbers on that page...it paints an ugly picture.
I think it's fair to say that INTC should be cut in half just to get it's trailing proforma p/e back in line with the trailing proforma p/e at the end of 1999. A time, I might add, when the future looked very bright. Y2k upgrade cycle was in full swing. The gap between high and and low end chips made a big difference to performance. Windows 2000 upgrade cycle was being promised. Corporations seemed to have plenty of cash and the capex spending looked to be strong. The consumer was looking very healthy. Now? what does 2002 look like?
I think INTC could and should crash to $10 in 2002. I am short currently as a result. It's hard to say how long this money printing, rate cutting, and mass media hype will continue to hold stocks like INTC up...When this market finally wakes up to reality...INTC will be crushed. I expect things to start rolling over with the start of the new year. I think insiders will start locking in gains on big cap tech as many have likely held off realizing gains until the new year. The market will likely puke up some bad earnings and guidance that will lead to a sharp sell off in the first few months of the year. I expect a full out crash by the end of 2002.
Good luck,
Bambs
p.s. from the yahoo profile. "For the 39 weeks ended 9/29/01, revenues fell 22% to $19.56 billion. Net income fell 91% to $787 million."
"52-Week Change +5.6%"
"Ownership
· Insider and 5%+ Owners: 7%
· Over the last 6 months:
· 7 insider sells; 1.24M shares
(0.3% of insider shares)
Institutional: 50% (54% of float)
(3,464 institutions)
· Net Inst. Buying: 83.7M shares (+2.42%)
(prior quarter to latest quarter)"
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