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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (12234)12/29/2001 3:47:19 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hi Jay -

I would still classify Enron & the Fed very differently.

I think Enron falls into the almost classic story of :
greed/envy- gamesmanship-success-reinforcement-hubris- increasing games leading fraud- crash

Like LTCM, Bernie Cornfield, some of hte S&L, Penn Square Bank, etc.

I think Greenspan was somewhat right in that there were some productivity gains from tech - but not as much
as was thought. Pushing lower rates did increase growth, which increase the adoption of tech, and opened up new postitive feedback paths (some of which were novel) which then CAUSED (with AG's help) an accelerating pro-cyclical growth and a bubble.

I think this was compounded by the Y2K thing, and what we now see as very real threats to attack the U.S. at that time. A.G.responded by increasing liquidity and making more of a bubble, then an overcorrection the other way.

I think being a little alarmist may be useful at this time.

My guess will be that the U.S. will inflate it's way out - Argentina could have used a weaker USD, and got better prices for it's commodities. I think we get 3-5 years of stagflation while debt is paid down, then moderate growth.
After Defaltion & high unemployment, I think stagflation will look good. ;-)

Went in to my local coin store today to ask about Platinum coins. About a week ago, someone bought about 90% of their Platinum stock....curious.
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