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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Les H who wrote (140815)12/29/2001 8:15:02 AM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (6) of 436258
 
Les:

LOL!!

As some of us have been pointing out for many moons, the PC market isn't just saturated, it is drowned.... in excess product.

As a consequence of this situation, the semis are still the best short bet for 2002 in my estimation (as their clients are up the ying yang with slow-or-non-selling inventory). 2002 is going to be worse than "nasty" for semi producers and I sure hope I can time a decent entry into the game. I'll probably be "early" as usual. (g)

I do think we see some serious downside action fairly near term. Across the globe, deflation is gathering momentum and even in N. America it is picking up steam. The lay-offs and defaults are the big things to watch as both are like fast, 300 pound linemen.... they do a lot of damage when they hit. What many investors do not pay attention to is the fact that every time an individual or a corporation goes belly up, assets are tossed into an already glutted market place and sold for worse than firesale prices..... which just makes selling products for a profit all that much more difficult. Making things worse, every lay-off reduces the field of folks who are able to buy and also negatively influences the buying plans of those close to the newly unemployed. To my mind, the evidence that deflation has now achieved "critical mass" is more than obvious. And few things are more devastating to stock markets than deflation.

Sooner or later, this latest bear market rally is going to reverse dramatically. Given the emerging deflationary conditions, it will likely fall much farther than any of us have been educated to expect.

Best, Earlie
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