ATTENTION....HERE'S LAST SATURDAYS NEWSLETTER...WHILE WE MAY GET A SMALL PULLBACK HERE...WE ARE GOING MUCH HIGHER...AS I WROTE LAST WEEK..ABOUT "THE MIDDLE" WE ARE MOVING UP RATHER THAN DOWN OUT OF THAT MIDDLE...IT'S STILL BUY ALL PULLBACKS TO SUPPORT TILL WE SEE THE WHITES OF THEIR EYES...MARKETS ARE LOOKING JUST FINE HERE, DESPITE ALL THE BEARISHNESS OUT THERE..THE NON BELIEVERS<G>...DO NOT FIGHT THE TREND...IT'S BEEN DUMB AND DUMBER SINCE THE SEPT LOWS...PLAY CABOOSE FOLKS YOU'LL LIVE LONGER TO ENJOY THE TRAIN RIDE...I TOO THINK WE'LL PULLBACK AT SOME POINT..BUT WHEN AND WHERE WHO THE HELL KNOWS...PREDICTIONS ARE FOR THE MYSTIC MERLINS OF SI...AND WALL(FALL) STREET...
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED DEC 23RD 2001
"TESTING THE MIDDLE"
Happy Holidays to you all from my house to yours. I am writing this newsletter today as Arlene and me are going up to NYC for the day tomorrow to see the WTC site and do some late minute holiday shopping for the grandkids...We were having dinner last evening with some friends, and all of us were talking about how fortunate we all are, for our lives, our health etc...it makes you sit up and take notice of your own existence here on earth...I've seen what other cultures look like to us, the Afghans, have lived a horrid existence for so long...Gosh those kids, those roads, those so called houses, etc...it makes you dig really deep into your souls to think "how many people are less fortunate then we all are"...it's an amazing world we all live in huh?...
It's occurred to me recently by some of the things I see and read that people in the USA are really pulling in their horns a bit here...Yes the consumer is going along ok I guess, but biz really sucks big time...this recession is a lot worse to my way of thinking than really meets the eye...We certainly need that stimulus package, and right now...Greenspan is only undoing his horrible mistake of the last 2 years..yeah he broke the bubble, but, good grief it crushed the greatest expansion ever in the history of our time...it was nuts...The bubble was gonna burst without higher interest rates folks...Valuations would have done that for damn sure...But no matter now, it's water under the bridge...
I hope everyone refinanced their homes cars, boats, planes etc<G>...it was too good to be true..My guess this time late next year rates will be a lot higher...Our bond index we follow on P&F reversed down at 104.00 this is the DJBB it's called the DOW 20 bond Index...nearing some support at 101.8..and inversely the TNX the US 10 year T-Note INdex broke out at 50 and ran up to 53 1/2..it's since moved lower last week on a pullback...sitting at 50 1/2...hey a charts a chart right?? it matters not what we are charting..looks like a stock to me...like a buy on pullback type chart...higher yields are negative going forward for rates...just a headsup here...
However, let me again say that we are really in a sweetspot in the economy..sure it's bad, and may get worse before we turn the corner..I can see now the 1st Quarter is going to be lousy...The word I get is, worse than the 3rd of this year..The 4th may be like breakeven or down..But remember this please..Corps will probably beat last years horrific numbers starting early in 2002..and the street is trying in vane to LOOK forward to the later part of next year for the true recovery to start in earnest...I can categorically state right now..we will at least be positioned well ahead of the masses, and we'll all know when the semis start to get real orders...that will be THE signal for us all to dive heavily into the abyss...when the semis turn, The market will explode up...like in melt up style...it will happen now probably sooner than later...maybe Q 3 2002...anyway I will not speculate, I will not predict..I will only follow along behind this engine as in "caboose"...it works for me folks...it will work for you too..
I'm not sure if your trading now or just resting up...but for those of you that are daytrading for a living...just a reminder, watch the 30 minute high & lows by 10 am..draw the horizontal lines on the stocks you watch and index, futures as well..then set alerts on all of them at those highs and lows...when you get an alert make sure we are in the days trend in the same direction of that alert...markets up, futures rising, stock gives a hod( high of the day) buy trigger...you can and should take that trade...then once your in the trade....you already know what your game plan is going forward..meaning, before you entered the market in the morning, you said to yourself..I am scalping today?..or I am swing trading today...it's very very important that YOU KNOW which person you are that day...first stop for me is always 1-- 1 1/2 point below that long, then at the first 3/4 to 1 point move up I set a Breakeven stop immediately, or scalp out right there...preservation of trading capital is paramount at ALL times..no money..not funny<G>
OK LET'S REVIEW THE INDEXES WE ALL KNOW AND LUV...
DJIA/DOW----INTERESTING CHART PATTERN SETTING UP HERE EVERYONE...THE CHART IS FORMING A POTENTIAL TRIANGLE...SO THERE'S 1 OF 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS...FIRST...WE JUST RUN UP HERE AND BREAKOUT AGAIN AT 10,200 THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL...OR WE REVERSE BACK DOWN TO 9900 WITH A POTENTIAL DOUBLE BOTTOM SECOND SELL SIGNAL AT 9650 A REAL SHOT...WHATS VERY INTERESTING IS THE "MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND" IS AT 9600..IT'S MOVING UP...THIS IS A POSITIVE EVENT...
NAZ/COMPX---THIS INDEX HAS GONE NOWHERE...1900 IS STILL THE IMPORTANT 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN...1800 IS STILL THE MIDDLE OF THE 10WEEK...WE DID SEE THE 10 WEEK BULLISH PERCENT A SHORT TERM INDICATOR ON THE OTC REVERSE "DOWN" LAST WEEK ON P&F...OTHER SHORT TERM INDICATORS HAVE ALREADY REVERSED DOWN AS REPORTED LAST WEEK...ON THE NYSE..ANOTHER CHINK IN THE ARMOUR...
NDX---SAME AS ABOVE..WAITING FOR 1550 HERE...THE 3 BOX DOWN...
SOX----WELL WELL FINALLY WE GOT THAT 3 BOX REVERSAL AT 520..NOT WITHOUT A REAL FIGHT FOLKS...THERE'S STRENGTH IN ALL THESE INDEXES AS NO ONE WANTS TO SELL...THE BULLISH PERCENT ON THE SOX INDEX GAVE A DOUBLE BOTTOM SELL SIGNAL LAST WEEK TOO..WE WERE UP AT 78% IT'S NOW AT 58%...DIDJA NOTICE YOUR FAVORITE SEMIS??? SEE WHERE THEY PULLED BACK TOO???..NOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE POWER OF KNOWING THIS INSIDE INFORMATION OF THESE TECHNICAL INDICATORS..IN ADVANCE OF THE WORLD???..HAVE I NOT SAID AD NAUSEA TO TAKE ACTION ON THE SEMIS???..NAH!!!!! HEDGE HEDGE HEDGE!!!! DID YOU??? NOT REALLY I'LL BET...
SPX---TOPPED OUT AT 1170, THEN SOLD OFF AND BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 1120..WE USUALLY IGNORE THE FIRST SELL SIGNAL IN AN UPTREND...IT'S REVERSED BACK UP HERE AT 1150...EITHER WE MOVE RIGHT UP AND TAKE OUT 1170, OR WE ROLL OVER AND DOWN AND BREAK ANOTHER BOTTOM AT 1110...WE ARE RIGHT "IN DA MIDDLE"...WATCHING FOR NOW..
BTK---DOUBLE TOPPED OUT AT 620, FELL HARD FROM THERE RIGHT DOWN TO THAT GOOD OLE BSL(BULLISH SUPPORT LINE), AT 550, AND BOUNCED AS EXPECTED...WE "EXPECT" SELLERS AT THE BRL, AND BUYERS AT THE BSL..COMPRENDE'?...SO IT RALLIED UP TO A 3 BOXER AT 590..WE ARE RIGHT IN DA "MIDDLE" HERE<G>...GET THE PICTURE EVERYONE?....WE WILL WATCH THIS INDEX IT COULD GO EITHER WAY..
VXN---MOVING SIDEWAYS AT VERY "LOW" LEVELS...IN A TIGHT RANGE RIGHT NOW..50 TO 53..TIGHT ENOUGH??? 49 A BREAKDOWN ON A MOVE UP ON THE NAZ..54 ONE HELLATIOUS BREAKOUT, AND VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE NAZ INDEX THERE..WATCHING...
VIX---IN A PROTRACTED DOWNTREND FOR A LONG LONG TIME..OVERSOLD?? YOU BETHCHA...I THINK IT MAY BE DUE FOR A BOUNCE...WATCHING HERE TOO...
QQQ'S---REVERSED DOWN HERE OFF THAT TOP AT 43...IT SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE NDX BULLISH PERCENT IS WEAK TO..WATCHING..
SMH---PERFECT SHORT FOLKS...YOU CAN TRADE THIS WATCHING THE SOX INDEX RIGHT? EVERYONE KNOW THAT??? MAYBE NOT HUH?...IT WAS A SHORT AT 45 AND HAS MOVED NEAR HEAVY NEAR TERM SUPPORT AT 40..39 IS THE BIG TIME BREAKDOWN..WATCHING FOR BUYERS AT 40/41 AND THE REVERSAL BACK UP HERE...
OK IT'S STOCK TIME....
AGIL---A PRETTY LITTLE CHART HERE EVERYONE..SOLID PATTERN..CALLED IT A LONG IN THE LOW 16'S ON FRIDAY...18 IS THE DOUBLE TOP, 18 1/2 THE BREAKOUT...CLOSED NEAR THE HOD..YOU MIGHT AS WELL USE 18 1/4 FOR THE BUY TRIGGER...WE'LL FUDGE A BIT..OR IF IT GETS SLAMMED MON, MAYBE BUY THE DIPSKI<G>....SS IS AT 16 3/4...
AMAT---ROLLING OVER AND DOWN HERE AS THE SOX MOVES LOWER...38 3/4 THE SHORT SALE(SS) TRIGGER..AND SERIOUS BREACH OF THE BSL LINE...40 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG
ADI---DOUBLE TOPPED OUT AT 48 AND REVERSED DOWN HERE HARD...JUST BROKE THE BSL LINE TOO...43 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...42 KEEPS YOU IN THE SHORT...45 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG 46 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..
BRCM---FABULOUS CHART FOLKS...ROUNDED TOP PATTERN ON THE DAILY CANDLE STICKS..AND CONTINUES TO CORRECT THE EXCESSIVE RUN UP FROM THE LOWS...TRYING TO DO A DCB BOUNCE HERE..OFF THAT PLUNGE...40 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...38 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...OR HIT IT AT THE TOP OF THE NEXT RESISTANCE AREA MAYBE 41/42ISH..
BRCD---WELL WE CALLED THIS BREAKOUT BUY AT 34 IT RAN ALL THE WAY UP TO 40..IT'S ROLLED OVER AND SOLD OFF HERE HARD..CURRENTLY SITTING ON THE 40EMA ON THE DAILY...SHOWING AN INSIDE BAR HERE...33 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...31 1/2 THE SHORT TRIGGER...HAS SOME SUPPORT AT 29/30...
CCMP---NICE TRADER HERE EVERYONE...THIS ONE COULD BE VERY GOOD...TOPPED OUT AT 82..WE HAD A NICE BUY TRIGGER LONG AT 79 3/4...IT NOW SOLD OFF HARD...HIT 73 AND REVERSED UP HERE 3 BOXES...I WOULD WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THIS BUY TRIGGER AT 76 1/4....TAKE YOUR TIME HERE...73 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER WITH ANY BREAK DOWN OF 72 YOU WOULD STAY SHORT FOR 68...THE DOWNSIDE TARGET..
CIEN----CHART LOOKS VERY WEAK TO ME...ANY RALLY UP IS A SHORT...15 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG 16 KEEPS YOU LONG FOR THE SHOT TO 18...13 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER..FOR A TRIP TO LA LA LAND...AH..10 BUCKS ANYONE???
CSCO--HAD A HELL OF A RUN UP TO 21 THE RECENT TOP..IT SINCE HAS SOLD OFF...IT'S NOW BELOW THE 20 & 40 & 200 EMAS ON THE DAILY..THATS A NEGATIVE FOR NOW...ALL BACKSIDE BOUNCES ARE SHORTS FOLKS...18. 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...17 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...
CREE---TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT AT 20 AND IT RAN STRAIGHT UP TO 29, IT'S ON A HIGH POLE...HOLDING WELL FOR NOW...LARGE BUYING ON FRIDAY..WAS THERE NEWS???....30 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...28 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...26 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN..
DELL---IN A NICE CHART PATTERN HERE...PROBABLY GOING TO MOVE DOWN FOR NOW...BUT..28 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...LOOKS LIKE A BULL FLAG ON THE DAILY HERE...26 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...27 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN...
DRIV---IN THE INTERNET SECTOR WITH THE BULLISH PERCENT(BP) AT +44%..GOOD AREA...17 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...MIGHT GET TO 18-19 AREA...15 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...14 1/2 KEEPS YOU SHORT...
EMLX---VERY POWERFUL CHART HERE...NOT SAYING IT CAN'T BREAKDOWN..BUT IF THE MARKET RALLIES THIS STOCK IS GOING TO BREAKOUT LARGE...40 1/2 VERY SOLID BREAKOUT BUY TRIGGER LONG...38 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER WITH ANY BREAKDOWN OF THE DOUBLE BOTTOM, A CONTINUATION SHORT AT 35...LOOKS NICE HERE FOR A SOLID MULTIPLE POINT GAIN EITHER WAY...
EBAY---LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL BULL FLAG FORMATION ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART RIGHT TO THE 40 EMA...65 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...67 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...63 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...COULD GET TO 60/61 TOO<G>..
GNSS---ANOTHER GOOD PULLBACK TO THE RISING 20 EMA...66 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...64 3/4THE SS TRIGGER...62 KEEPS YOU SHORT...
MYGN---THIS CHART PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE CHART..LOWER TOPS AND BOTTOMS...56 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER..WITH ANY RALLY UP TOWARD 58/59 A POTENTIAL HIT FROM THE TOP SHORT AREA...54 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...53 KEEPS YOU IN THE SHORT..
IMCL---HAS BROKEN DOWN THRU THE 20 & 40 EMA..DAILY...63 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...61 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER WITH A BREAK OF 60 A CONTINUATION SHORT...
IDPH---VERY UNUSUAL CHART PATTERN ON THIS STOCK...BUYERS AND SELLERS IN A MIGHTY TUG OF WAR..2 TRIPLE TOPS, AND 2 TRIPLE BOTTOMS..AMAZING...69 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG 73 THE TEST OF TOP AREA...67 THE SS TRIGGER...65 THE TEST...
NVDA---WONDERFUL CHART HERE ON THE LONG SIDE SO FAR...HIGHER TOPS AND HIGHER LOWS ALL THE WAY UP..NOT MANY SELLERS HERE...65 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...63 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...
QCOM---BIG SELLOFF AFTER A FAILED TEST OF TOP...AT 62..STRAIGHT DOWN TO 50...LOOKING FOR A BOUNCE HERE...51 1/4 THE LONG SIDE TRIGGER...53 STAY LONG FOR MORE...48 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER..WITH THE BSL LINE RIGHT THERE...
WELL THATS IT FOR THIS WEEK...I AM GOING SHOPPING LATER TODAY AND INTO NYC TOMAR...
KISS ALL THE KIDS FOR ME..HAVE A MERRY AND SAFE XMAS...
THANKS FOR YOUR CONTINUING SUPPORT...I HOPE WE CAN MAKE SOME VERY SOLID GAINS FOR THE NEW YEAR..
WARMEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL
JER
Jerry Olson
Master Class Trader
jerry.olson@verizon.net
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com |
