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To: mishedlo who wrote (140836)12/29/2001 12:44:47 PM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
mish, i'll take a stab at this one. i find your NG COT graph interesting and here are my observations.

1) for the most part, the commercials seem to take the opposite side of the large specs. this make me think that some hedging is occurring. very hard to make any statement during those weeks.

2)the commercials on the same side of the large specs is not typical. i would be interested to back test those weeks and bet it is far more predictive of pricing when that occurs.

3)recently the commercials are more strongly against the large specs. i again, would want to back test and see if this becomes significant. if so, then you may have a trade here.

4)small specs...meaningless

not sure if that's what you wanted but those points were the striking things to my eyes.
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