Could be, but only if people value Cisco at 100% of their discounted future cash flows value (currently at around $8 per share), which I haven't ever seen it valued at. The lowest I've ever seen Cisco valued at was 150% of their discounted future cash flows, which occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks when Cisco briefly touched $11.
BTW, I want to post the preliminary results of a bet a few of us made a long time ago, around May 8th, 2001.
Below is a list of people and their predictions (including the post #) for what price Cisco would be at on 12/31/2001:
myself (#52525) - $25
tippet (#52522) - $10
Gottfried (#52575) - $31
NYCBoy (#52575) - $7
Ed Forest (#52582) - $31.27
So unless some miracles happen on Monday it looks like NYCBoy, Gottfried, and Ed are the furthest away from the ~$18 it's trading at now. Conversely, it look like tippet and myself are almost equadistant from Friday's close of $18.54. But if I had to give the nod and declare a winner, I'd have to declare myself the winner, by $.54!
The moral of the story is that NYCBoy is being as ridiculous to the downside as the bulls were to the upside in the bubble days.
Stay tuned for the next prediction showdown on 12/2002, where NYCBoy predicts Cisco will be at $3 (#52575), Bambs says $8 (#52577), and I said $30 (#52573), although I now think it will be more like $25. If anyone wants to revise their estimates or give me others, I'll mark it down and check it later. All in good fun and to prove once and for all that we all suck at predicting the future! :) |
