Let's see if I can find enough contradictions in your post to perhaps convince you that the devastation that seems to be coming may be nearer than you think:
You accurately perceive this:
Sure, folks are getting laid off right, left and center
But this is not going to last much longer if unemployment keeps increasing:
most of us are awash in cash flow.
Not the unemployed.
We've had two of the largest financial crumblings take place back-to-back (Argentina and Enron) and there are no panics
Did you see elmatador's post on Nortel and Lucent? Bears reading again. Merger or bankruptcy on the way? Would definitely cause a problem domestically. Japanese problems are serious and not going away. No panic in Japan, simply silent suffering.
Of course, the 8,200 square foot house across the street from me is still for sale.
Yup, and it's going to be for sale for a long time. The end of tasteless McMansions was predictable. No more bubble money to finance them, might as well bulldoze the ugly sucker. Some bank is going to take the hit.
and purchased gifts in seven different top-end stores in just under 27 minutes. Which might have been faster except that in two instances the sales clerks seemed to understand, appreciate and even enjoy the fine art of haggling. Or perhaps they were just bored and enjoyed my company. And while this may appear on the surface to be proof of bad news for the doomers and gloomers, I can assure you that it was very good news for me. I then savored several hours of unexpected vacancy in my agenda sipping outrageously overpriced coffee. One of those that I put on my visa card, and where the $0.27 in transaction fees thus generated still didn't dent the obscene margins.
The only obscene margins were in the overpriced coffee you charged on your VISA card. Your other gifts, I daresay, were heavily discounted even though purchased at high end stores. The discounts are even deeper now. While this is good in the short term for a Holiday buyer, it is devastating to the retailer who depends on decent earnings to keep afloat. The charming sales clerks you chatted up are unlikely to have jobs in February.
Wal-Mart was the only retailer that did well this year--not a good sign. No more chi-chi 25 year olive oils or pashmina wraps being sold. The consumer who bails out the economy is being a Scrooge. Why shouldn't he be? He's looking at losing his job, his portfolio has been smashed, and things are simply bleak. He's taken his shopping to Wal-Mart where he can really save a buck. I tell you, it's not a good sign.
You appear to be in the throes of Holiday-induced good will and optimism, which is nice. The Holidays are indeed a welcome respite from the harshness. But wait 'til February. If the interest rate cuts don't give the economy some traction by then, we are looking at another two years of pain. Our economy will be compared to Japan's. Uncle Al will be forced to flood us with cash, and inflation will inexorably follow. Budget surpluses will be a thing of the past and W will have no choice but to begin to consider a tax hike--gotta pay for all those expensive bombs delivered half-way across the world somehow, you know.
And another point: I truly hope it doesn't happen, but we cannot ignore the possibility of further economic chaos caused by another terrorist incident. One of those and all bets are off. |
