Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58251)	12/30/2001 8:11:15 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 70976

12/20/01 ML note: The Federal Reserve reported semiconductor fab utilization for November remained essentially flat sequentially at 59.9%. For the first time since July of 2000 the three-month moving average of the month-to-month change in utilization rates is positive, signaling to us that stability has finally returned. Utilization remains a leading indicator for equipment orders and, therefore, stock prices. • With the bookings data in-line with expectations, the book-to-bill in-line with estimates and utilization beginning to show a bottom, we do not expect much impact on the stocks from this news. We believe the downside risk to the stocks is above their September lows and would mostly be driven by any adverse stock market conditions rather than group specific news. However, investors with a 12 to 18 month time horizon should see attractive returns as evidence continues to grow for a technology upgrade cycle beginning at some point in 2H 2002. Tech buys can keep orders around 600M/M.

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