Dan, Re: "All we know (from the 10-Qs) is that Intel has been spending 9.5 times as much on wafer capacity as AMD, in order to achieve that 3 to 4 times sales."
You are comparing Intel's 2002 manufacturing capacity with Q3 2001 unit volumes. I know, because we went to huge lengths to figure out Intel's and AMD's manufacturing capacity. In Q3 2001, Intel did not have 9.5x of AMD's capabilities. It is the addition of several new facilities, and the ramping up of others, that will allow Intel to increase their wafer starts. Comparing future manufacturing with current numbers is misleading, and you know it.
Re: "if VIA got 6% of the unit market, then Intel is down to 2/3's of the market, and their unit sales ratio relative to AMD is approaching 2 to 1 - while their market cap is 42 times that of AMD."
AMD has approximately 21% of the market from the previous market research. VIA and others have less than 2% of the market. That puts Intel at 77%, or 3.7x that of AMD. But that ratio will obviously be very unstable at the numbers that Intel and AMD plan to have for this quarter. Some people are predicting AMD's volumes at well over 8 million. That sounds pretty optimistic, given that AMD's only assertion is that they will have a record quarter in unit volumes. And that doesn't figure the fact that AMD has been, and continues to be, quite absent from U.S. retail stores. I find it hard to believe that they can get their volumes just from the distribution channels.
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