Hi Bill,
>>you may just mellow out a bit after reading the whole message including that of Scarletta's (sp?).<<
What I would also want to do is to find out what Scarletta's track record has been in calling market turns over a few years. If he has been good at this, I would certainly place more credence on his opinion. I personally have never heard of him though that does not necessarily mean anything.
Bernie S, on the other hand, has had a fairly good track record as a market timer and has been on the list of the top 10 market timers for quite a while. I don't follow BS, neither do I subscribe to his service--but if he turned bearish, longer term, it would certainly get my attention. Here in LA, the local financial channel provides commentary from several experts. One that I like to listen to is provided by Timer Digest and basically outlines the posture of the top 10 timers in stocks, bond and gold. Now I don't view this as a contrarian indicator --because presumably the reason that these timers are in the top 10 is that they know what they are doing. Unfortunately, I have not listened to this commentary for a while--but may be some one else can comment on this if they know what was said.
In the mean time what I would advise anyone who listens to any commentator, whether it is Scarletta, Schaeffer or anyone else is to be cognizant that it is one person's opinion--and he or she may or may not be right. I also encourage everyone to get a hold of Hulbert's evaluation of the performance of many of these so-called experts in terms of their actual track records--it will be an eye-opener. Most of them come nowhere close to beating the market averages, some can't even beat the rate of return on a treasury bill and a few actually lose money.
Regards |
