HNY, Jay.
This is the best thing to do when cluelessnes sets in:
The ex-market maker has all his millions in USD fixed deposits, and is cutting back on spending in line with reduced interest income.
Smart, smart, smart guy.
Me? I'm a self-professed LTB&H (Long Time Bloodied & Harassed) so will continue to do what I 'm comfortable doing though it seems almost masochistic now.
May go to some cash at beginning of year. Why?
The American consumer is not leading US out of the recession. The retailers (except for Wal-Mart) did not do well this Christmas. Consumer is cheap and wary, not in bubble mood. Quite the contrary, he has watched his wealth implode, his portfolio get bloodied, job is in jeopardy, and there is a possibility of another catastrophic terror event hanging like the sword of Damocles over the US economy. Optimism drives the stock markets--no reason for optimism. Proof? Uncle Al has opened spigots of liquidity and it is not working yet.
Who is going to lead the US out of the recession if it's not the American consumer? The only one who can do it is business through capital expenditures. Is it happening? Nope, it's not. It's still in shock, and needs to understand that the basis of future success lies in spending on technology and productivity now so as to get a leg up later on competition. But that is not how it's done in US so don't expect a rush of capex to lift the economy.
Japan? Gimme a break. So smart, so productive, such a homogenous, well-ordered society that for whatever reason is totally clueless. Nippon needs to take the bitter pills, swallow the cod-liver oil (like US did with S & L mess) and get on with it.
Why are all the pundits optimistic? They're paid to be.
No need to be clueless. Get into US gov't bonds and wait for the bargains. |
