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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Warpfactor who wrote (11373)	12/31/2001 6:02:04 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (3) of 23153

Warp I'll tell you what...forget about LOILY...you won.<VBG> Lets make a New Year's resolution to have no stock picking contests in 2002. They were also the nemesis of the old thread. While Jim and Dabum are co-posters-of -the-year, there are a lot of good posters here and I would like to hear everyone's thoughts on the coming year. How about an annual review by those interested (The First Annual????) People can and will cover any topic they choose but I am suggesting the following questions. -How did you do this year? -What were your best plays? -What were your worst plays? -What did you learn? -Where do you intend to do better next year? -What is your current outlook on economies and markets? -What do you see as major investment themes in 2002? At the risk of evoking howls of derision from the Numbnutz Twins, I'll begin. I had a gain of approximately 26.5%. Best moves MDR by a wide margin since it represented close to 70% of my gains. This stock collapsing in late 1999 and lapsing into BK in early 2000 was the best thing that ever happened to my investment portfolio since it was also my best performer in 2000. Some nice energy longs in the early part of the year. Got killed on my short puts on the OSX/XNG futures in May but made it all back and then some in June. Had some nice gains during late summer on NG shorts mostly recommended by JimP. And then there was SMOP! Worst moves Some ill-timed tries at tech bounces. Giving back some energy gains in late Spring. Got greedy and played some of the energy shorts too late in the year. Took a very large position in Spiders on 9/21 but bailed with a pathetic gain. I simply did not see a V-shaped move. Expected a brief rally followed by many months of choppy base-building. I really want to forget a total bonehead move with ENE just before the deal collapsed. Sold half at a 10% gain but came up a penny short on selling the other half which was quickly worth about a penny.. Next year I intend to follow Buffet's Two Rules of Investing 1. Don't lose money 2. Don't forget Rule #1 with a modification to It is OK to lose a little money just don't lose real money (or is that "loose"?) I also intend to approach TA with an open mind in 2002 thanks to the excellent work here, especially by Dabum. I would like to use it to play energy in both directions since we will almost certainly see both in our nutty sector in the coming year. Outlook I'm basically pessimistic on the market and the pace of recovery and in sync with Stephen Roach's views of a weak market and a sluggish recovery. Did anyway see the table in Abelson's column this week? Showed the average of where standard market ratios stood at the bottom of 13 prior post-war bear markets vs where they stand currently. Not a pretty sight. P/E average 11.0 now 25-35 Dividends average 4.7% now 1.3% Price to Book average 1.43 now 6.70 Price to Sales average .58 now 1.43 I'm really thinking cash, treasuries, high-grade corporates, REITs, utilities with an emphasis on dividends. I expect the return of the dividend to be a 2002 theme along with a return to GAAP accounting and away from pro-forma B.S. The idea that dividends are unimportant and that there is no need for corporations to provide an INTRINSIC return to owners was one of the biggest scams of the bubble. People forget that more than 50% of historical returns came from dividends. Happy New Year to all and best of luck in 2002. John

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