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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17385)12/31/2001 10:04:16 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (7) of 99280
 
A Prediction for 2002

2002 Biotechnology = 2000/2001 Internet

FWIW, I think one of the major stories of 2002 will be a major hit to the biotechnology sector. Most of these stocks are small, highly speculative, one-trick ponies, with their entire futures depending on the success of a Phase 3 Trial. Most of these stocks do not: (1) have profits; (2) have products out on the market; (3) have products which have strong probability of passing a Phase 3 Trial and entering the commercial marketplace within the next 12 months.

The valuations (market cap) in many cases are ridiculous, reminiscent of the late 1999/early 2000 internet darlings and there have been a disturbing number of developmental drugs which have been delayed by the FDC, requiring additional testing and data, quite costly to small cap stocks without profits.

Just a hunch, but... look for the BTK to sink like a stone, dropping from its recent high of near 600 down to long term support at 400. From there, it is anyone's guess as to whether it bounces or breaks long-term support.

DlphcOracl

P.S. For those who think the above is nonsense, can you say
"ImClone?" Just a cautionary example of how fast these stocks and this sector can drop at the first hint in delay of a Phase 3 drug -- and ImClone is one of the larger, more established players in this space.
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