Hi Ramsey, <<In this day and age of globalization, where can investors from all over the world park their money?>>
Global investing electorates can and had at various times, over, neutral and underweight US portfolio allocation, and they are currently (still) overweight, because Japan is horrid and getting worse, and Europe is in same condition, with more rigid system than US and intra-Europe barriers, even though with less debt, more savings, and more room for rate cuts than the US. Emerging markets are burning or burnt, and are riskier still and relatively small. The money therefore stays in overweight US position, getting dissipated along with J6P equities, pensions and 401Ks, holding up the USD despite the ongoing carnage of wealth.
<<What would trigger an exodus of funds from US equities and other instruments?>>
Apparently nothing:0), logically something, at the least expected moment, causing the maximum harm. Isn’t that the way of all bear markets following a bubble in any asset class?
Maybe, perhaps, possibly, when either the conditions in the US look less favorable than at 'home market' for each global electorate, or when 'home markets' gets truly cheap, or both. Or, possibly, perhaps, maybe when the powers that be in the US decide that a strong USD is bad. These events seem to go in cycles.
Here I am on the issue …
Message 16824456
“I am, as noted many times before, weak on conviction. This lacking of ‘danglies’ can be discerned in my conservative allocation that is mostly cash, near cash, better than cash, and real estate heavy, and very much equity light. I believe the equity market will not go anywhere fast, and I feel the longer the USD holds up, the worse eventual fall will be.
In the meantime, I am neither betting without fear on inflation, nor gambling without trepidation on deflation. On the USD, I am not speculating ‘hog wild’ against, or with the USD.
Having said all that, my allocation is still, more or less (78% counting HK rental real estate, 54% excluding HK rental real estate), in the majority, USD denominated … “
There is at least one currency trending up against the USD, at least until the government’s printing effort nix the trend in the bud …
Message 16829368
“In China, the black market RMB (Chinese currency) is actually rising against the USD. I expect the mainland authorities to keep issuing notes and building infrastructure to keep the RMB to USD peg at current level, unless Japan Yen goes to 140 and stays there, in which case watch for RMB devaluation talk from the powers that be, possibly see the HKD (along side the RMB) devalue against the USD, SE Asia disappear, and Jay’s ownership of Thai beach land drastically increase.
Bottom line, I have no absolute answers, only relational guesses, but I am ready, as always.”
The end will probably be like this …
Message 15986692
“The moment of maximum clarity tends to hit all observers at the same precise thunderbolt moment, then, the already agitated masses starts to move, all at once, in the same direction, as their mind is no longer confused by CNBC at the exact moment that they experience the first sensations of free-fall. It seems to always work this way, never gentle.
The moment may arrive for the USD and its very good alternative, specie, simultaneously, but in opposite directions”
… because …
Message 16036196
“The USD is strong, but only because it is strong against sicker paper such as the CAN$ and Euro, and if (neh, forget hedge words), when it falls, it will fall against only one possible monetary reserve unit, Gold. So little of the stuff to go around.
Whatever may be said of gold, every ounce sold was bought by somebody, and some ounces may have been sold twice, or have two owners;0)”
… and …
Message 16040577
“I think, scarily again, that in the event of USD devaluation, and the deliberate synchronous Yen, Euro, Yuan, Baht, Peso, ... devaluation, the outcome would be truly New Ec, as in global deflation for manufactured goods due to the emergence of China as a manufacture base for all things electronic, Japan and Korea for all things on wheels, and India for all things software (these countries were not in play in 1929), and global inflation for all things petroleum and gold, due to lack of faith in the global currency USD (this USD was also not so dominant in 1929). Real estate etc and all assets that earn a declining return due to deflation will deflate as well. This would be a yet again unprecedented phenomenon, born of New Ec.”
I do also feel that …
Message 16135811
“Keeping the USD strong is only possible for awhile longer - cosmologically speaking, and is like committing industrial suicide, even as it concurrently ropes up more J6P cashout-mortgage-borrower for later mass financial suicide. So, given that the USD will go down sooner or later, it follows to reason that sooner may be better than later, before too many J6P ropes up on still more debt.
The US drinking the cool-aid and drops the USD voluntarily now would be a sign of growing monetary responsibility, and thus bullish for the long term, even as it is potentially toxic. The market looks forward …
I doubt CNBC is on this wave length. They probably thought "dollar is good, more dollar is good, strong dollar is good, weak dollar is also good”
Chugs, Jay |
