January Effect 2002 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2002

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (70)	1/1/2002 2:14:10 PM
From: Night Trader	Read Replies (1) of 91

It seems to me that a boffo tax-loss season requires some combination of 3 factors. 1. Gains in some stocks elsewhere to motivate the tax selling in the first place. 2. Total despondency in a sector if not the general market, a feeling that the shares might never come back. 3. Moderate success of the strategy in the recent past otherwise too much money will be there buying to cancel out the selling. A year ago we got the first one and the other two to an extent while this year we got none of them (except perhaps 2 in Telecom).You could say that this year December was in September. FWIW here are my end of year buys, which may or may not have been depressed by tax selling: INSM – Biotech I’ve had my beady eye on all year since a bout of insider buying. Not THE low but low enough. VSGY – Another biotech selling below cash. ALLP - Pharmaceutical company - is there a pattern here? - that from scanning the message boards I just feel has reached a trough in sentiment. IAIS – Used airliner leasing. I’ll be writing a fuller review of this one on the Value thread shortly. Talking of which, while you’re waiting for next December, you may want to check it out - I know I've learned a lot from it: Subject 10036

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