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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)1/2/2002 1:57:51 AM
From: Mike M  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Thanks for the invite Zeev. I think I will...post my own scenario, that is... I think it possible you got bullish just about the time your untimely "December" consolidation was ready to unfold. Monday's selloff was a bit sharp and probably a harbinger of things to come.

We are in a wrestling match between 1920 and 2000. In the short run I suspect that we have a better chance of breaking below 1900 than in surpassing 2000. We had a cycle top around the 26th and it now appears that the next low is the 9th of Jan. That is enough time to wreak a little havoc on the bulls before they get it going again.

I give it a better than even chance that we do a little bouncing in the 1850 area and, if so, that ultimately gives way to 1780 area...For the Elliot guys that would constitute a completed fourth wave since September, in my book. I would then set the stage for an explosive move up which may well blow through 2200 and approach 2400. From there I would expect a five wave correction which should again fall no further than the 1700 area.

If, instead, we push above 2000 inside the week (I don't expect it, but cannot yet rule out), then perhaps we find ourselves still in the third wave since September, and before the middle of February we reach for 2160.

The charts have yet to completely show their hands but I have to admit that Monday looked ominous.

Everybody gets a guess. That's mine.
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