Science
Christy Scoffs at IPCC’s Doomsday Scenario
Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama at Huntsville and a lead author of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, has publicly criticized the IPCC’s media campaign to generate public alarm about global warming. "The world is in much better shape than this doomsday scenario paints," he told the London Times (February 20, 2001). "There are 245 different results in that report, and this was the worst-case scenario. It’s the one that’s not going to happen. It was the extreme case of all the different things that can make the world warm."
On the computer models that form the foundation of the IPCC report, Christy said, "You should approach climate models with a degree of awe and a sense of humor. They are incredible accomplishments of code-writing, but they are not the real world. They have many shortcomings – the sort of tiny shortcomings that can make long-term predictions suspect." Indeed, said Christy, no model accurately portrays the current climate. How then can we trust future predictions?
Christy also noted that man’s impact on the earth is too small to detect. "Hurricanes are not increasing," he said. "Tornadoes are not increasing. Storms and drought do not show any pattern of increasing or decreasing. The evidence shows we are living in a climate of natural variability. Variations of climate have always occurred, even when humans could not have had any impact!"
The specter of malaria in England from global warming is a red herring, according to Christy. "Malaria is not a warm weather disease and was endemic in Britain in the 19th and early 20th centuries. It is constrained by simple public health measures. In countries wealthy enough to support a good public health infrastructure, there is little or no malaria, such as Singapore and northern Australia."
Russia’s Frigid Winter
Russia is experiencing its coldest winter in 50 years, according to official measurements. The average temperature in Siberia was – 40 degrees C and fell as low as – 70 degrees C (Arizona Republic, February 18, 2001). This is significant because according to greenhouse theory places such as Siberia should see the largest rise in temperatures from increases in atmospheric concentrations in greenhouse gases.
Because the coldest air masses on earth are also the driest, greenhouse gases exert a relatively larger influence on temperatures than in more humid regions, such as the tropics. Indeed, tropical temperatures should remain nearly steady.
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