albert, Re: "1) huge market share loss for intel
1a) huge market share gain for amd (upto 27%)"
Dataquest is saying this?
Just a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation here.
Let's say that the Q4 total available microprocessor market is 35M CPUs (this was last quarter's total, so conservatively, Q4 will perform as well as Q3).
27% of 35M CPUs is 9.45M. If VIA and others sell 1M CPUs, that leaves 24.55M, or 70%, for Intel. Pentium 4 shortages or not, these numbers would be quite unexpected from both AMD and Intel. 24.55M is fewer CPUs than Intel sold last quarter (which would be unexpected, given Intel's mid-quarter positive update), and 9.45M CPUs from AMD is a 23% increase over last quarter, which seems hard to believe, given their absence from U.S. retail, as well as having been dropped from Gateway's product lines.
If we assume a large increase in the total available market, say 40M CPUs, then that would mean that AMD sold 10.8M CPUs, and with 1M from VIA and others, that brings Intel's total to 28.2M, or 70.5%. That brings Intel's total in line with what I would expect (again, because of boosted expectations from the mid-quarter update, and given equal or smaller gross margins compared to last quarter, that means much larger unit volumes). AMD's total, however, is even more unbelievable at 40% over the previous quarter.
My guess is that 27% market share theory seems like a farce. The AMD representative that mentioned 27% in an interview much have meant that in a particular segment, not overall. What exactly is Dataquest saying?
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