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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 221.61+3.5%11:27 AM EST
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To: Elmer who wrote (66906)1/2/2002 8:04:19 PM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Dear Elmer:

And you forget that it takes 13 weeks plus a few to take a wafer from start to shipped at the retailer so that he can sell it. So at the minimum, you should use Q2 period for wafer starts rather than Q3 (this obvious error means you do not look at the real world much). Changing to go back 13 weeks means that 60% at end of Q2 means that 50% of 5000WPW should be the base or 2500WPW. Rerunning the calculations shows that 2500 WPW * 115 GDPW * 13 weeks = 3737500 good die was available to be sold in Q3. And that matches what sold. Obviously AMD did not suffer a yield crash unlike Intel which is still short per your definition used in your post. 50K WPW * 50 GDPW(P4) * 13 weeks should make at least 32.5 million P4 CPUs. Since Intel did not sell that many and Celerons and P3s are a lot smaller, Intel must have a big yield problem.

I think that Intel has two possible problems, speed bin yield curve does not allow for enough to be sold profitably in the higher bins and/or Intel did not start enough wafers in Q2 to keep shortages from happening. Even now, they must be suffering these same problems, since they are yet to be fixed. Only the former would explain how persistent this problem is and how moving to 0.13u would fix it.

Since you obviously do not think Intel Mgmt is stupid, only having an intractable binning problem makes sense. What they do not want to let on is that they have one.

Pete
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