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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 137.34+0.8%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: rharshman who wrote (110145)1/2/2002 8:32:49 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
one of the problems with that scenario is you expect 30% CAGR for five years, and QCOM has gone sideways or down for the last two. if you've been in the stock that long, you know that two years ago nobody was predicting two years of flat earnings. since nobody predicted what happened these past two years, why should we believe they can predict the next five? this is the kind of selective forgetfulness that plagues the bull's thinking (regarding QCOM and the market in general).

If the earnings actually do grow at a
compounded 30% a year with continued good prospects, the PE should actually be higher.


by that logic, the PE should be lower now since they have been spinning their wheels for so long. it just goes to show, PEs, as well as earnings, are hard to predict. this is another argument in favor of dividends, because that is cash you can take to the bank even if the share price is in the dumps.
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