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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 231.83

+1.7%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (67008)	1/3/2002 4:28:50 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Jim, Re: 1. XP boxes are rare here in the USA. Basically you have to order one. So what? US retail is maybe 5% of the overall worldwide market. If you want to find an area where AMD has to increase market share it's in the business space not in retail. Just because Jerry used to brag about retail market share doesn't make it more important. 2. Besides that, 95% of buyers wouldn't have a clue that a 2000+ XP is as fast as a P4 2200. As long as they pay $350 for an Athlon XP 2000+ that's fine for AMD. But they certainly wouldn't spend $650 for the same CPU labeled as an Athlon XP 2200+ as you propose. 3. Intels marketing still puts AMDs to shame. Average buyer goes to the store and all they see is a Pentium or all they can remember is Pentium. See my first point. There are certainly enough informed buyers of AMD CPUs worldwide to allow AMD to reach record CPU shipments. The US retail market is not representative for the worldwide CPU market. 4. Unless AMD has .13u waiting for next week, they will have no answer for the Northwood. AMD went from being ahead in process and copper to being behind. AMD has always been late on a new process (it was the same with 0.18 micron and 0.25 micron before) but switched over to it faster because they don't have to convert that many fabs. Intel will still have a lot of 0.18 micron capacity this year. If AMD will ship 0.13 micron mobile Athlons this quarter I don't think there's a problem. If there are further delays it could become a problem. We should know more after the next CC (16th this month). 5. Apparently AMD loves being the underdog since they have snatched the chance of being the loser once again from the jaws of victory. You can't "win" against a competitor that's ten times as large. AMD's strategy for continued market share gains seems to working and that's the best they can do. They have also successfully countered Intel's strategy to undermine AMD ASP's by moving P4 to the mainstream. While AMD had many blunders in the past they have executed flawlessly since the introduction of the Athlon XP IMO. We have to see if this trend continues this year. 6. Meanwhile Jerry lined his pockets for his old age again. I don't recall any recent stock sales from Jerry. If he does sell in significant numbers soon that would certainly be a warning sign and a good opportunity to either sell or short AMD. But right now that's not the case. Andreas

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