Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.17

-1.4%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58377)	1/3/2002 5:17:21 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 70976

I don't need to post because you say it all. A few things. I looked at the Merrill Lynch semiconductor analysis (30 companies) and their forecast is for CY03 to have lower cumulative revenues for the group than CY00. This is a caution flag for the semi-equip recovery. I stand by my November statement that we have seen the lows last year and that a new bull market has started. The near term prospects for technology stocks and their valuations is another caution flag. If my November prediction of a rally through FEB/MAR is met, I believe the stage will be set for a significant correction with die-hards calling this rally another bear trap. I still look to take profits (sell, sell covered calls) at my previously posted target prices and to use the correction to get in about 20% lower. I don't think it is prudent to try to maximize profit during this run up and the subsequent correction because we are in a bull market. I think that the best business case I have seen for AMAT is still $20B revenues and $5.50 EPS. Best case timing is 2005, but 2006-2008 is more likely. This should lead to $110-165 in 2004, best case timing, or, more likely in 2005-2007.

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