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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45775)1/3/2002 6:16:50 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 65232
 
why does almost nobody find oil/gas promising as investment?

if AlQaeda strikes in MidEast against Saudi or Kuwait,
then oil stocks will shoot up
that is, Canadian oil stocks
not Exxon or Texaco, whose supplies come largely from MidEast sources

if the US economy revives bigtime,
then oil stocks will shoot up massively from demand
esp little Canadian oil stocks
and even giant Exxon and Texaco will rise some

if the US economy revives tepidly,
then oil stocks will rise nicely
esp little Canadian oil stocks, who will see growth

if economy revives strong and AlQaeda nitwits hit targets,
then oil stocks will skyrocket
esp Canadian oil stocks having zero exposure to MidEast
we will be facing $40/bbl oil again quickly

the only thing that will keep the lid on oil stocks is...
a prolonged recession and no AlQaeda activity whatsoever
not likely

I believe a huge longterm bull market has begun with oil/gas
esp with Canadian-based stocks
they are all depressed in price now
their indexes are showing signs of bottom and movement off bottom

nothing will stop our nation's rising consumption levels
nothing will prevent rising imports of MidEast oil
fuelcell cars are still ten years away, maybe seven
political pressure will be loud & clear soon for North American production
plenty of oil exists in Canada, while Alaska is petering
Athabasca Alberta alone has almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia
maybe more

by 2005 the USA may have an accelerated campaign to boycott Arab Oil
a well-deserved consequence of their violence and cartels
I believe West Canada and Canadian Maritimes will the primary sources of oil by 2008-2010

there are 10-bagger galore in oil/gas juniors
real hard asset stock plays will soon put intellectual property stock plays to shame
I am not talking about a return to inflation
rather a return to real assets, real income, real profits, with growth
/ jw
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