re: $110-165 in 2004, best case timing, or, more likely in 2005-2007.
I can live with that. Live well, in fact.
I am not, yet, quite convinced that we are in a new Bull Market. It looks a lot more likely than in the January or May 2001 rallies. And even if it is a new Bull, there is still going to be a lot of volatility, a lot of chances to buy (or buy back) on 20-40% dips. And there are going to be entire sectors, where overleveraged companies face lingering overcapacity into 2003.
Whether we are, or are not, in a new Bull Market, I won't be using margin, or buying LEAPs. At most, I'll add a bit to long positions on those 20%+ dips, buying stock with cash.
As of today, with the Nas at 2000, my portfolio is about 10% below where it was when the Nas hit 5000. That's an accomplishment I'm prouder of, than the doublings I had during the Bubble. Holding onto capital during downturns is as important as gains during Bull markets. It's been a brutal 2 years for techs (and longer for a lot of non-techs, many of which peaked in early 1998).
"Valuation will make a ceiling for stocks, and liquidity will make a floor", says it about right. I'm pretty sure we've seen the bottom in business conditions, but I haven't really seen the upturn. Or the slope of that upturn.
And, in the back of my mind, there is this small worried voice that keeps nagging: "How many Enrons and Argentinas will we have in 2002? And we haven't found the thousands of people trained by Bin Laden and dispersed in hidden cells throughout the world, we haven't found the leadership of Al Queda or the Taliban, or the people who sent the Anthrax letters. Where will the Nas be, after a dirty suitcase bomb makes the center of a major American city uninhabitable?" That is one possible future, which is why I won't be going below 20% cash in 2002. |
